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Risk management theory of individual housing loan.
When handling mortgage property insurance, it should be clear that the principal of housing provident fund loan is the first beneficiary of insurance. For example, if a customer applies for a personal housing provident fund loan from CCB, it is still not enough to pay the remaining house price, then the customer can also apply for a personal housing loan from CCB, which means that on the other hand, he can apply for a personal housing commercial loan with the same term. However, the total amount of these two loans is limited to 70% of the house price. That is, the maximum amount that a customer can apply for these two loans is 50.70% = 350,000 yuan. Among them, a customer applied for a loan of 250,000 yuan, the loan amount of individual housing provident fund was 654.38+10,000 yuan, and the loan period was 15 years. The customer's repayment period in the following 654.38+05 years is 654.38+080 installments. According to the loan interest rate of individual housing provident fund, it is assumed that each period is 769.6 yuan, and the loan amount of individual housing business is 654.38+0.5 million yuan. The customer shall repay the 180 installment payment within the next 15 years. According to the personal commercial loan interest rate, each period is assumed to be 82 1. 13 yuan. In this way, after the combination of the two loans, the repayment amount of each installment is 769.438+0.13 =1590.7 yuan. As for personal housing loans, banks generally consider them as high-quality assets, which have the advantage of lower default rate compared with corporate loans, so personal housing loans are regarded as low-risk loans. However, according to the bank's internal information, since the second half of 20001,the failure of individual customers to repay on time has gradually increased, which has aroused the high vigilance of the financial sector. Therefore, we should re-understand the current situation of individual housing loans. In recent years, driven by the rapid development of the real estate market, personal housing loans have developed rapidly, and the proportion of personal housing loans in bank assets has risen rapidly. Many commercial banks also regard individual housing loans as low-risk credit varieties and take them as the focus of credit business development. By the end of 2003, the balance of individual housing commercial loans in China was as high as 1.2 trillion yuan, and the non-performing loans of most domestic banks were mostly controlled between 0. 1%-0.2%. In the short term, it can almost be said that it is one of the best loans in the current asset class of commercial banks. However, in the current specific financial market environment, personal housing loans are not necessarily low-risk financial products for commercial banks. In a certain sense, the potential risks faced by individual housing loans of commercial banks are higher than other types of loans. If commercial banks can't effectively identify and control the potential risks faced by individual housing loans at present, the rapid expansion of individual housing loans in the future may become a risk source that commercial banks can't ignore. Second, the current risks of individual housing loans With the rapid growth of individual housing loans in China in recent years, the risks are also increasing. Re-understanding the risk of personal housing loan will help commercial banks to further enhance their awareness of prevention and reduce and prevent the risk of personal housing loan. Looking back on the development process of real estate entering the market economy in 10, it experienced the process of backlog, unfinished business and speculation. Great changes have taken place in market transactions, and real estate has also entered the buyer's market. However, due to the credit problems of the whole market, such as irregular operation of government departments, malicious deception by developers, imperfect rules of the game, and insufficient understanding of market credit by small owners, the risks of real estate are becoming more and more prominent, especially the risks of personal housing loans. Here is a detailed analysis of the risks of personal housing loans. (1) The current situation of personal credit risk personal information management makes it difficult for commercial banks to make accurate risk judgments. From the perspective of credit risk, on the one hand, personal housing credit brings about that the borrower cannot repay the bank loan on time or is unable to repay it because of changes in family, work, income, health and other factors, and is forced to give up the default risk of the purchased house by default, thus bringing losses to the interests of the bank. On the other hand, borrowers may also deliberately defraud bank loans through forged personal credit information, thus creating moral hazard. Among them, personal credit risk is divided into: 1. Property buyers are unable to repay their loans because of the decline in income levels. It is worth pointing out that individual housing loans belong to medium and long-term credit, and the repayment period is usually around 20-30 years. During this period, the personal credit situation is facing great uncertainty, which is prone to the lack of credit and the decline of personal payment ability, which may often turn into bank loan risk. Considering that the current applicants for individual housing loans are mainly white-collar, the current income level fluctuates greatly and the income is highly marketized, this medium and long-term risk is particularly worthy of attention. At present, the floating interest rate system in China's individual housing loan makes the lender bear considerable interest rate risk, which makes it more likely that the lender will default during the interest rate rising cycle. 2. The buyer defaulted on the loan due to the failure of the investment method. Property buyers did not predict the market enough, made investments when buying houses, and failed to adopt investment methods such as renting and raising loans, resulting in inability to repay loans. This situation accounts for a large proportion. With the cooling of real estate, the housing rental market is in a downturn, accounting for an increasing proportion, and the credit risk of banks will also increase. There are also some second-home buyers who have defaulted on loans. 3. Default risk leads to failure to fulfill the agreement and pay off the loan on time. Default risk refers to the problem that the borrower of mortgage loan fails to pay off the loan on time, which leads to the default and termination of the loan. There are many reasons for the borrower's breach of contract, such as the borrower's income level, employment situation, environmental changes of real estate developers and so on. It has caused great risks to bank loans. (2) The credit risk is 1. Developers maliciously resort to deceit, conceal the truth or other improper means, reduce the housing area, shoddy, and raise housing prices, causing losses to buyers, leading to buyers' resistance and loan default. 2. The developer failed to fulfill his promise, failed to complete supporting projects such as fire fighting in time, and delayed moving in. 3. The developer fails to pay the land price, supporting fees, project funds and real estate license, which makes some owners default on loans and give up mortgages, resulting in credit risks. 4. The developer over-promises to sell the house. And signed a leaseback agreement with the owner, because the lease was not ideal or the developer defaulted on the leaseback, the owner also defaulted on the bank loan. 5. Poor property management leads to disputes between owners and developers, which makes owners default on loans and increases credit risk. (3) Liquidity risk of banks For banks, the rapid growth and rapid increase of medium and long-term loans such as personal housing credit may bring liquidity risk. The concrete manifestation of liquidity risk is that the proportion of medium and long-term loans in the bank's asset structure is too high, cash and national debt are insufficient to meet the demand for withdrawal, and there is a lack of means and channels to integrate cash in time. It is acceptable that the maturity mismatch of assets and liabilities of commercial banks is within a certain range, but the gap should be controlled within a certain proportion. It is the liquidity risk management and interest rate risk management of commercial banks that manage this gap. According to international experience, when the proportion of individual housing loans approaches or reaches 18%-20%, the overall liquidity of commercial banks and the constraint on the proportion of medium and long-term loans will become a very prominent problem. For some city commercial banks with small assets and single asset types, they have actually begun to face liquidity problems. From the experience of mature markets, mortgage securitization is actually a new type of housing financing. Banks combine mortgage loans with poor liquidity but predictable future cash flow to form an asset pool. Based on the cash flow generated by this asset pool, after credit enhancement and credit rating, mortgage bonds are issued to investors, and the repayment funds come from the principal and interest paid by mortgage buyers.