On May 15, the Central Bank and the China Banking Regulatory Commission jointly issued the Notice on Issues Related to Adjusting the Differentiated Housing Credit Policy, saying that the lower limit of the first home loan interest rate will be lowered by 20 basis points, and all localities can "make policies according to the city". Subsequently, the 5-year LPR was lowered by 15 basis points. Under the dual factors, many places in the country have followed suit and lowered the mortgage interest rate.
Multi-site mortgage interest rate cut
On June 7, the Housing and Construction Bureau of Hohhot said that the minimum interest rate for medium and long-term housing loans for the first suite was adjusted to 4.25%, which is the lowest personal housing loan interest rate in Inner Mongolia in recent years.
On May 20th this year, the central bank authorized the National Inter-bank Funding Center to announce that "the LPR over five years is 4.45%", which is 15 basis points lower than that in April. Since then, mortgage interest rates in many provinces and cities across the country have been lowered, and the interest rate of the first home loan in many places has been as low as 4.25%.
From the perspective of credit, policies such as lowering mortgage interest rate, reducing down payment ratio and increasing the amount of provident fund loans are helping the real estate market to pick up.
The monitoring data of mortgage interest rates in 42 key cities in China by Rong 360 Digital Technology Research Institute also shows that in May 2023, the average interest rate of the first home loan nationwide was 5.03%, down 13 basis points from the previous month, and the average interest rate of the second home loan was 5.36%, down 9 basis points from the previous month, basically returning to the level five years ago.
Some institutions speed up lending.
The change of purchase intention is not obvious.
The aforementioned insiders said that from the perspective of personal investment in real estate, residents are generally cautious about the expectation of real estate appreciation. "But the loosening of the current policy is a positive encouragement for those who have the need to buy a house. Compared with the previous stage, the number of people who take practical actions to participate in the purchase of houses should gradually increase. " This person expects.
Related Questions and Answers: Related Questions and Answers: Why do banks raise mortgage interest rates now? Is the bank's interest rate high? In fact, compared with other products in the short term, the interest rate of banks is really low, but the overall amount seems to be very high.
The loan of 654.38+0 million has been repaid for 30 years, and the repayment interest of the bank has reached 654.38+0 million in the previous period, that is, the original 30-year loan of 654.38+0 million, and now it needs to be repaid more than 2 million.
Why should the bank's loan interest rate be raised?
(1) The domestic economy has been in a stable state.
At the beginning of 20 15, the mortgage interest rate in China suddenly dropped from 6.25% to 4.9%, because there was great turmoil in the stock market at that time, and a lot of funds were needed to consolidate the recovery of the A-share market.
The year of 20 15 is the most severe year for the discount of mortgage interest rate in China, with the highest discount rate of 7.5% and the normal discount rate of 8.5%.
The discount rate of 20 16 years is further reduced, generally controlled at 10%, and the discount gradually disappears in the second half of the year.
Not only did the discount of 20 17 disappear, but the interest rate also rose, with the first suite rising by 5% and the second suite rising by 10%.
Raising interest rates in 20 18 is the craziest year. The first suite rose by 15%, and the second suite rose by 20%. In some areas, the first suite rose by 20%, and the second suite rose by 25%. The same is true for 20 19, and the interest rate has remained basically unchanged.
In 2020, interest rates fell again, but the base interest rate fell by as much as 0.25%.
(2) The increase of interest rate further increases the cost of real estate speculation.
It is inevitable that the increase in interest rates will further increase the cost of real estate speculation. In recent years, the increase of house prices in China has gradually slowed down, but the loan interest rate has not changed significantly. The cost of real estate speculation is at a high level, and the profit earned in one year is less than 10%. Real estate speculators will naturally choose other channels to make money.
▲ Look at the relationship between China's policies and interest rates.
In 20 17, China introduced the policy of "one city, one policy", and the preferential mortgage was gone.
The goal of 20 18 destocking has been fully realized. When the interest rate rises to the second stage, the bank's lending quota will be reduced.
20 19 China policy announced that "real estate will no longer be used as a means to stimulate economic development, and the situation of real estate speculation has been obviously brought into play, and interest rates have once again reached a stable state."
In 2020, under the influence of the epidemic, although the policy of housing and not speculation was adhered to, some cities still wanted to liberalize all policies of real estate to promote economic recovery with the real estate market, which led to rapid economic recovery in the Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta. Although the interest rate has dropped from the previous benchmark interest rate of 4.9% to 4.65%, the increase is still the same as before.
Over the past four years, the policy of suppressing mortgage interest rates has indeed led to stable real estate speculation. Some cities have played an obvious role, but this progress has been delayed by the epidemic.
(3) There is a more realistic situation that touches our hearts.
All the banks in China are controlled by the People's Bank of China, and the People's Bank of China will lend at low interest rate when it has sufficient funds to obtain the same income.
In the case of insufficient funds, interest rates will be raised. On 20 18, some commercial banks were unable to declare that they would not apply for mortgage loans, and all interest rates were raised as high as 30%.
The rise in interest rates is to better fight for the financial problems of ordinary people.
According to the development track of the country.
China's social economy has developed to a certain height, and now the economic growth rate is gradually slowing down. When the economy slows down, our investment cost and return profit are at a relatively low stage, and the interest of banks must be reduced to promote social and economic growth.
Interest rates in China have nearly tripled since the 1990s. Since the initial loan interest rate was basically 15%, as long as we borrowed money from banks to do some small businesses in the 1990s, our businesses now basically have a certain scale, with a higher probability of success and a higher return on investment.
At present, there is basically no channel to double the principal in one year, so the interest of banks must be reduced to meet the most basic situation of social life.
▲ The development track of developed countries has become a reference.
No country in Japan, the United States, France and Britain has a loan interest rate of more than 3%, and countries like Japan even reach 1.3%.
The economic growth of developed countries is in a very slow stage, so the return on investment is also in a relatively low stage, which also reflects from the side that China is taking the same road as these developed countries did in those years.
Summary:
Regarding the current interest rate situation in China, there will be no continuous decline, because the epidemic situation in China has been in a relatively stable state. Looking at the recent domestic interest rate, it has been maintained at 4.65% and has not dropped.
Raising interest rates, on the one hand, cracks down on real estate speculation, on the other hand, always needs to be injured, and the interest of buyers has increased so much.
China will have two sets of standard interest rates in the future. The LPR interest rate can be raised or lowered according to different products. In the future, mortgage loans will remain at this high interest rate level, and corporate loans will gradually decline. There is no personal opinion about this well.