Interest rate is an important concept in the financial field, which refers to the fees or returns charged by financial institutions when they provide funds to borrowers. Interest rate directly affects the borrowing cost and investment return, and has a great influence on the capital operation of individuals and enterprises. The following small series brings experts to say that the interest rate policy should not be adjusted frequently. Let's take a look at it together, hoping to bring some reference.
Experts said that the interest rate policy should not be adjusted frequently.
According to the news of the World Economic Forum on June 27th, at the Davos Forum in the summer of 2023, Zhang, a professor at the National Development Research Institute of Peking University, believed that before discussing solutions and policies, the unstable factors in the financial sector need to be considered, and the most important part is the policies of the government and the central bank. Professor Zhang pointed out that the interest rate policy should not be adjusted frequently, but should be kept as stable and continuous as possible so that the market can react naturally.
Will the country adjust interest rates in the future?
According to the changes of national policies and economic situation, it is possible to adjust interest rates. However, interest rate adjustment needs to consider many factors, such as inflation rate, monetary policy, market liquidity and so on. If the economic situation is stable, the country may not need to adjust interest rates frequently, but maintain a relatively stable interest rate level. Generally speaking, interest rate adjustment is a complicated process, which needs to consider many factors and make reasonable decisions.
What does it mean to adjust lpr once a year?
Lpr is adjusted once a year, which means that the adjustment cycle of mortgage interest rate is once a year, which means once a year.
The adjustment cycle of floating interest rate of mortgage is set by users themselves, and most users will choose to adjust it once a year, that is, once a year. After the adjustment of LPR, if the user chooses to adjust the mortgage interest rate on June 65438+1 October 1, last year's LPR is different from the LPR in the mortgage contract, so the mortgage interest rate will be recalculated on June 65438+1October1.
As for the mortgage interest rate adjustment date, it is the mortgage lending date. LPR will be adjusted one month before the mortgage date. On the mortgage interest rate adjustment date, the mortgage interest rate will be adjusted accordingly. Most users will want to minimize the mortgage interest rate, and they will choose to adjust it once a year. Only by frequently adjusting the mortgage interest rate can they effectively save the mortgage interest. Most banks adjust once a year by default.
The National Government's Adjustment of the Bank's Interest Rate Policy
Theoretically, interest rate is regarded as the average rate of return on investment in yield to maturity or society. But in China, until a long time after the reform and opening up, interest rates were regarded as the operating costs of all state-owned enterprises, and the central bank's rights in interest rate policy were even inferior to those of the financial sector. Even in today's market economy, bank funds are only for state-owned enterprises, and there is no basis for calculating the "average social rate of return". Furthermore, according to the current operating conditions of state-owned enterprises, the interest rate policy is determined according to the average profit rate of these enterprises (excluding water), and it is entirely possible for the deposit and loan level interest rate to drop to a negative value (research shows that the loss of state-owned enterprises in 1998 exceeded the flood loss in that year). According to the market rules of developed countries, the basis for determining interest rates is debt.
The gap between the supply and demand of the bond market and the national conditions is even greater. China's national debt interest rate is determined according to the bank interest rate, which is higher than the bank deposit interest rate in the same period. There is no real market bidding process, but in developed financial markets, this process is an important reference for the formation of market interest rates.
The experience of the past ten years shows that it is only the current inflation level or, more directly, the current price level that affects the interest rate level and policy in China. The hyperinflation around 1994 has prompted the government to raise the interest rates of bank deposits and loans again and again, and to pay deposits to preserve and supplement the value, so the interest rate of national debt has also increased. During this period, the loan demand of enterprises has not decreased because of the increase of interest rates. The decline in corporate loans from 65438 to 0996 is not due to the interest rate policy, but the government's strict measures on the loan scale. Because the bond market is underdeveloped, the interest rate policy has little influence on cash management. In the first half of 1960s, financial departments at all levels were afraid of inflation, which made increasing cash withdrawal an administrative instruction. The interest rate dropped from 65438 to 0996, accompanied by the gradual decline of the price level. The operating conditions of enterprises have not changed substantially, but the problems in the period of hyperinflation are superficial. The interest rate cut not only aggravated the previous stock market volatility, but also transferred the debts of state-owned enterprises loaned by banks to residents in disguise.
The interest rate adjustment in the process of deflation is still regarded as a way to cater to the price level, because the interest rate cut has not stimulated the investment of enterprises and the consumption of residents. 1998 after the flood, the central bank and other institutions won several gold medals and asked major commercial banks to increase loans. 1996 The management of loan quota was cancelled, but it rose again at that time, only from the previous restrictions to encouragement. After the discussion of deflation and liquidity trap, the central bank began to brew interest tax in addition to continuing to cut interest rates, hoping that the consumer market can play a partial replacement role in the case of sluggish investment demand of enterprises. But one year's experience shows that the impact of interest rates on residents is equally disappointing.
Reasons for the adjustment of interest rates by the state
Money is loose and the national economy is stagnant. In order to ensure the normal operation of the economy, the country will not collapse too soon, reduce interest rates, increase the money supply in the market and promote economic growth.