The four major banks are repairing the sluggish credit supply with a relatively soaring attitude. The reporter of Shanghai Stock Exchange was informed that as of 24th, the scale of new loans of the four major banks in August has increased from 56 billion on 17 to 13 10 billion. However, this data change does not correspond to the optimistic picture of the industry. A number of bank front-line business personnel said that due to the rising pressure of non-performing assets, some banks have feelings of reluctance and fear of lending.
Last Thursday, the credit supply of major banks rebounded.
Judging from the data of the four major banks, after experiencing the downturn in credit growth at the beginning of the month, the credit supply capacity of commercial banks is recovering at the end of the month. During the week from 18 to 24, the new loans of the four major banks reached 75 billion yuan. Although the credit data shows recovery, the analysis shows that the real credit demand situation is still worrying.
The diving of financial data in July was considered as a landmark event by the industry. It has been observed that since 20 13 shadow banking supervision started, the balance sheets of commercial banks have often shown the characteristics of "reverse" movement of on-balance sheet and off-balance sheet expansion, that is, if the on-balance sheet credit is suppressed, the off-balance sheet expansion of commercial banks will accelerate accordingly; Conversely, if off-balance-sheet business is suppressed, banks will make up for it with on-balance-sheet credit. However, in July this year, not only on-balance-sheet loans plummeted, but also off-balance-sheet financing such as trust loans and undiscounted bank acceptance bills shrank sharply.
In July, the amount of new loans of all financial institutions was only 385.2 billion, far below the market expectation of more than 700 billion, and far below the performance of the same period in recent years. Therefore, the central bank rarely calls the media to explain the monthly credit data to appease the possible pessimism in the market.
Analysts believe that the change of confidence has led to the shrinking of credit. Under the background of the uncertain macroeconomic trend and the surge of bad debt rebound pressure, commercial banks are reluctant to lend.
Risk pressure leads to reluctance to lend.
Banks' reluctance to lend does not only exist in speculation and analysis. A person from a joint-stock bank told the Shanghai Securities Journal that due to the addition of several non-performing loans, its department is basically idle at present, and the loan business submitted for review is also forced to demand that "this material should be added today and that material should be added tomorrow".
A state-owned banker also said that the downside risks of the economy are still relatively large, and banks are afraid to lend to SMEs. In addition, the constantly emerging non-performing assets in the past two years have also forced banks to gradually strengthen risk control measures. In this case, there are very few enterprises that not only meet the industry guidelines to support and encourage enterprises, but also have mortgage and other risk reduction measures. Therefore, it is normal to be unwilling to lend and afraid of lending.
"Non-performing loans have mushroomed!" Another joint-stock banker lamented the current pressure of risk control, arguing that the main reason for the poor credit supply of banks at present is that banks are reluctant to lend and afraid of lending.
The grass-roots survey released by Shen Wan yesterday also shows that due to the accelerated exposure of non-performing loans, the credit supply and structure of banks are mainly based on risk factors. At present, the supply rhythm of big banks is basically consistent with the plan at the beginning of the year, and joint-stock banks are obviously reluctant to lend.
The banking institutions surveyed by Shenwan include the head offices and branches in Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, Jiangsu, Zhejiang and the central and western regions. The survey shows that the asset quality in Beijing is still stable, and the exposure of non-performing loans in other regions is accelerating, including the central and western regions with less risk in the early stage. Some banks have increased their non-performing loans more than planned at the beginning of the year. Although banks increased their efforts in packaging and disposal in the same period, and the write-off disposal was close to or higher than last year's level, non-performing loans still showed the trend of Shuang Sheng.
According to the statistics of China Banking Regulatory Commission, as of the end of June, the NPL ratio of commercial banks was 1.08%, up by 0.08 percentage point from the beginning of the year, and the NPL balance increased by 1024 billion. At the same time, in the first half of the year, the banking industry disposed and recovered 99.2 billion yuan of non-performing loans, up13.2% year-on-year; In the same period, commercial banks wrote off bad debts 100 1 100 million yuan, and the write-off rate increased by 14.97 percentage points compared with the beginning of the year.
Shen Wan said that at present, the risk appetite of banks has dropped significantly, and the structure is tilted towards large state-owned enterprises, while the approval of private enterprises and small and medium-sized enterprises is more stringent. The balance of SME loans in some banks in Jiangsu and Zhejiang has shrunk compared with the end of last year. During the same period, banks increased their mortgage loans. Considering the low mortgage risk, some joint-stock banks have restarted the long-suspended first home loan.
The above-mentioned joint-stock bankers also told the Shanghai Securities Journal that due to stricter risk control, all loans of private enterprises in their branches with a single amount exceeding 50 million must be reported to the president of the head office. Therefore, at present, all new loans of private enterprises in branches are not approved.
Credit data may recover in August.
Although banks are reluctant and afraid of lending, the market is still relatively optimistic about the overall credit supply in August. Earlier, CICC predicted that the new loans of the whole industry in August would be 600 billion to 700 billion yuan, better than the 385.2 billion in July.
Another analyst also believes that the overall credit supply of financial institutions is expected to resume in August. Some analysts believe that if the data does not improve, it is not ruled out that banks will be instructed to increase the scale of lending in the last week, and the data at the end of the month should rebound strongly.
However, compared with the acceleration of loan delivery, the current situation of deposit loss in commercial banks has not changed much. The reporter of Shanghai Stock Exchange was informed that by the 24th, the deposit losses of the four major banks were still around 480 billion yuan. However, under the regulatory requirement that the CBRC does not allow "rushing time", the speed and scale of deposit return at the end of August still need further observation.