On April 23, many ministries and commissions of the country threw out subsidy policies without warning, which instantly detonated the automobile circle.
Busy these days, many netizens left messages in the background to urge me to finish this article overnight:
The Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Science and Technology and the National Development and Reform Commission issued a notice on improving the financial subsidy policy for the promotion and application of new energy vehicles. According to the notice, the price of new energy minibus before subsidy must be less than 300,000 yuan (including 300,000 yuan). In order to encourage the development of the new business model of "changing electricity" and accelerate the promotion of new energy vehicles, "changing electricity" vehicles are not within the scope of this regulation.
In short, the state has drawn a lever at the price of 300,000. New energy vehicles on top of this no longer enjoy a subsidy of 20,000 yuan, but the power exchange mode is not in this case, and they can continue to enjoy subsidies.
The first reaction of most people is that this is a precise blow to Tesla. After all, among the mainstream models currently on sale, only Tesla and Weilai are more than 300,000 yuan, and the policy opening of the power exchange mode is obviously biased towards Weilai.
In short, this country seems to be at odds with each other.
But this is not without warning. As early as a month ago, Li Xiang, CEO of Li, sent a message to Weibo that Tesla would definitely reduce its price to less than 300,000 yuan.
He, CEO of Xpeng Motors, made a similar prediction on Weibo.
Therefore, in their view, Tesla's sharp price cut is affirmative to avoid the knife of reducing compensation.
In fact, according to the analysis of financial institutions, Tesla model? The real cost should be around 230,000, which can be greatly reduced after it is completely made in China. At that time, the price of Tesla dropped to more than 200,000, which was really terrible.
I never expected that the most exciting thing was Li Xiang. He called the policy a disaster.
What he probably means is that Tesla's price reduction rhythm will be more moderate because of the feelings of old car owners. As soon as this policy comes out, it will prompt Tesla to cut prices directly.
In short, in Li Xiang's interpretation, this policy has not only failed to curb Tesla, but has played a role in fueling the situation, which will prompt Tesla to enter the price range of less than 300,000, and the domestic electric vehicle brand is in jeopardy. As long as the price is reduced, Tesla is invincible in the price range of 200,000-300,000.
Really, as Li wanted to say, we wanted to put a catfish in to stir up the new energy vehicle market, but we accidentally put a shark in? Not only did the policy not play a restrictive role, but it became an aid?
0 1. Tesla has only two options.
The key information is hidden in the gambling agreement between Tesla and the Shanghai municipal government.
If we link this gambling agreement with the latest policy, we will find that this policy is actually not an aid for Tesla, but more like a reins.
In this gambling agreement, the most important one is that Tesla has to pay 2.23 billion yuan in taxes every year, otherwise the Shanghai municipal government has the right to take back Tesla's factory. Note that Tesla has to complete the tax levied on the circulation of goods, instead of paying 2.23 billion yuan to the Shanghai Municipal Government every year.
Therefore, there is only one way to achieve the tax target-to achieve the corresponding turnover and profit.
Now Tesla has two choices-
1. Reduce the price and reduce your own profit to increase sales, keep the total profit unchanged, and complete the gambling agreement with the Shanghai Municipal Government.
2. Keep the price and profit rate unchanged, but do not enjoy subsidies.
Actually, so far, models? The price of 3 can't come down-because the current localization rate is gradually rising from 30%, and the cost has not been significantly reduced, which is not enough to support the price reduction plan.
To complete the gambling agreement, Tesla's only choice is to accelerate the localization process and integrate suppliers as soon as possible. Shortly after the introduction of the policy, a message confirmed the president's judgment: the price of Tesla vehicles did not fall, but rose. The standard endurance version and the long endurance version rose by 4,500 yuan and 5,500 yuan respectively.
However, Tesla's accelerated localization is only the first step in the impact of this policy on the market. And with the passage of time, the far-reaching influence will gradually emerge.
After all, after the completion of localization, Tesla's price reduction is almost certain.
02. Tucki's listing the day after tomorrow was very calm.
After the introduction of the new policy, Tucki P7 has indeed received great attention.
After all, the pre-sale price of 270,000-370,000 is embarrassing to hit the muzzle of the policy, and this price will be on the model? 3 in the context of price reduction, it has become an obvious disadvantage.
But not long after, He sent a circle of friends, saying that he didn't panic at all and the problem was not serious.
(Source: Zhihu)
This circle of friends will give you a simple translation:
1.？ Fortunately, I knew the policy before the press conference, and I had time to adjust the price.
2.？ It has no effect on P7 (suggesting that the price will change greatly).
3.？ 300,000 yuan is a line, you don't have to fight for hardware, you have to fight for software and operation. It's true.
4.？ I know Tesla will reduce the price, but it can't beat us. It is a joint venture and a high-end brand.
There is some truth in this statement. When the policy cancels the subsidy for more than 300,000 models, the market will be clearly divided into luxury car and economy car camps.
In the economic mode, software and operation will produce a better user experience than the mode of simply producing and selling hardware.
And we look at the pre-sale price of 270,000-370,000 announced by P7 earlier, compared with the domestic version of Model? Coincidence is complete, so I think Tucki is ready.
Tucki's staff answered questions at the Zhihu, saying that "this must be a surprise for everyone".
But the most interesting point is actually He's fourth point: Tesla's gross profit in China is 30%, and it is fully capable of adapting to new changes, but it will pose greater challenges to some joint ventures and brand-new EVs of high-end brands.
To understand this, we need to understand the policy again. In the new regulations, in addition to canceling the subsidy for more than 300,000 models, there is also a very important regulation-raising the prerequisite for subsidies from the cruising range of not less than 200 kilometers to 300 kilometers.
This rule excludes some joint venture models, such as LaVida pure electric, Bora pure electric, Golf pure electric and Audi Q2-Etron. The above models are not only insincere in oil-electricity conversion, but also very miserable in battery life (all in the range of 264-278km).
I don't know, and I dare not ask, why domestic fake repair cars have been sprayed with dog blood for so many years, but no one has sprayed these joint venture or imported fake repair cars.
Not only joint ventures and imported new EVs, but also joint venture fuel vehicles are also uncomfortable. In March of this year, Tesla won the title of luxury brand and cut away the cake that originally belonged to BBA. It is still the biggest piece.
Take mercedes benz c's sales in March as an example. In March, the sales volume of mercedes benz c class was 94,265,438+0 vehicles, compared with 65,438+04,789 vehicles in the same period last year. Even the best BMW 5 Series has dropped from1174 last year to 9592, a decrease of 14.2%.
The president still remembers the shocking news last August: Tesla Model? The sales volume of North America 17800 single model exceeds the sum of all BMW models.
Maybe in the near future, we will probably see the same scene as the United States: just a model? 3. You can single out the sales of all cars of a luxury brand. If BBA doesn't transform into a new energy source and survive with broken arms, there is no doubt that they will follow the footsteps of Suzuki and Renault and never miss the China market, which ranks first in the world in terms of production and sales.
And ordinary brands can't gloat around:
After the first BBA fell, it was their turn to be the target of slaughter.
People will find that the same price, business-oriented Magotan Passat, at a higher level is not as good as BYD Korea's high-end atmosphere; Camry for home use is not as warm, comfortable and grounded as Tucki P7.
Not to mention the natural advantages of new energy vehicles in intelligence. Not only does it have the updating ability under OTA blessing, but L2 autopilot has also become standard.
On the other hand, the number of fuel vehicles with OTA and autonomous driving function at this level is 0.
The sales peak of fuel vehicles will eventually stay at 20 18, which is gone forever.
However, this can't help but make us worry about our own brand fuel vehicles in this price range. After all, the brand power and moat of independent brands are not as good as those of Europe, America, Japan and South Korea.
After careful observation by the president, an amazing discovery was made: in the price range of 200,000-300,000, except for Hongqi H7, there were no cars with their own brands. ...
(This is very strict. Although a Lexus 03+ broke through the 200,000 mark, Lexus insisted that it was a "joint venture brand", so ...)
03. What will happen if Tesla reduces the price?
The question is: What will happen if Tesla reduces the price?
As BYD Han, P7 and Weilai ET7 are not listed yet, they insist that they are "joint venture brands". In addition to Hongqi H7, there are really no independent brands in the domestic mid-to high-end car market.
This does not mean that China enterprises can't produce cars that meet the requirements. Brilliance OEM BMW, BAIC OEM Mercedes-Benz and Geely OEM Jaguar, it can be said that the production strength of domestic manufacturers is no worse than that of any enterprise in the world.
A large part of the problem is not technology, but the market has been occupied, and there is no gap for a new fuel car brand to survive. China is like this, and so is the world.
Therefore, only the new energy field can boldly enter the high-end field for bold exploration, so BYD Han appeared, P7 appeared, and Weilai ET7 appeared.
Before they went public, the state felt obliged to open up living space for these aspiring brands. In short, "overtaking in corners" has reached a critical stage.
We can find the official answer from an answer given by the Zhihu Automobile Association:
The president excerpted the key sentences here for everyone.
"Use limited fiscal and taxation funds to increase the proportion of new energy vehicles in China as much as possible",
"feed tax funds back to the people and benefit the whole society to the maximum extent",
"Accelerating market cultivation and improving market visibility are also the primary tasks of subsidies at this stage."
There is a strong signal between the lines: be quick, be quick! Time waits for no one!
From now on, the figure of "300,000" is meaningful after repeated consideration.
Therefore, the benefits of lowering the price of Tesla are also obvious, which can not only change the concept of domestic consumers at the fastest speed, but also enable them to adapt to the environment where the streets are full of electric vehicles. At the same time, it can make the domestic new energy industry chain bigger and stronger quickly.
Like this:
(General idea: Including Tesla's order, Sanhua Zhikong's order for sale has been scheduled for 2024, and the amount exceeds 65.438+06 billion yuan)
At the same time, the introduction of this policy will accelerate the localization process of Tesla, and will also prompt Tesla to cut prices after completing localization.
After Tesla's price reduction, traditional brands such as Volkswagen, Audi, BMW, Mercedes-Benz and Toyota suffered the most, which will also promote domestic new energy to compete with Tesla at this price.
The best part of this strategy is that you can also pull the bias box at an appropriate time (such as "except for the power change mode"). This allows domestic enterprises to compete head-on with Tesla in the market without being killed by a wave. Lay a solid foundation for the future independent brand new energy vehicles to go global.
After all, Volkswagen sells 10 million vehicles worldwide every year, and we also want it. ...
As for those enterprises that can't win even if there are countries in China that are biased against you, don't go out and lose face while it's early.
Tesla's catfish effect began with this extremely simple and heavy document. This paper seems to be just a few words, but it embodies the hard work of countless new energy practitioners.
And our century-old dream of becoming a powerful country.
We have been trying to be a conscientious, objective and fair new energy automobile media, and we are also trying to write useful news and comments. If you think our things are interesting, remember to pay attention to us ~
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