First of all, the information on non-performing loans disclosed is true. Important business data information disclosed by banks, including asset quality information such as non-performing loans, are audited by external auditors. If it does not meet the specified requirements, the auditor will ask the bank to make adjustments and disclose it according to the adjusted loan quality. Among them, the external audit of large banks is undertaken by internationally renowned accounting institutions, which shows that all operating data of banks are transparent. If the loan quality classification is not true or false in essence, both banks and external audit institutions must bear relevant legal responsibilities.
Although a few branches of banks may use illegal means such as fraud to cover up their non-performing loans, superior banks and regulatory authorities will correct or adjust their classification through various means of monitoring, on-site inspection and external audit. Of course, it does not rule out that there will still be some factual non-performing loans in normal interest loans. Generally speaking, the non-performing loans disclosed by banks now should be true.
Secondly, asset preservation and risk mitigation measures are important ways for banks to resolve risks. Some people think that an important reason why the quality of bank assets is not true now is that many branches of banks are covering up the true quality of credit assets through adjustment, extension, reorganization and even borrowing new ones to return old ones.
Great changes have taken place in macro-economic operation, market environment and trading methods, which will inevitably make it difficult for some borrowers to continue to perform financing contracts signed with banks. Banks will also encounter many new uncertainties, and need to take various measures such as risk prevention, preservation, slow release, control and disposal to keep the quality of credit assets as stable as possible. In this case, the bank negotiates with the borrower to adjust, modify or expand the elements of the original loan contract, and reach a new contract acceptable and enforceable by both parties, so as to reduce risks, preserve assets and adapt to the new economic operation. This is not only the need for enterprises to maintain normal production and operation, but also the most important and commonly used way for banks to resolve credit risks, which is in full compliance with regulatory requirements and international banking practices. Risk management measures, such as banks, cannot be regarded as acts to cover up the quality of real credit assets.
In fact, this kind of adjustment and modification of loan contract elements is common even in economic times, but now it is increasing. Of course, the basic principle of this operation is that banks should ensure that the risks are not expanded or controllable, and will not bring great pressure to the quality of credit assets in the future. For example, with the changes in the real estate market, the sales progress has slowed down greatly. The loan period of real estate development agreed in the original loan contract was set according to the inertia thinking of rapid sales in the past, which did not match the sales progress after the change of the real estate market, resulting in a great increase in the probability of loan default. Banks and borrowers need to re-negotiate, and adjust some elements such as the loan term and repayment method in the original contract according to the actual market sales repayment situation, so as to make the loan repay the principal and interest normally. In view of such risk factors, banks take such asset preservation and risk mitigation measures to avoid technical default by customers.
Third, loans with potential risks are not actual non-performing loans. Recently, overseas institutions and their analysts have continuously analyzed the asset quality of China's banking industry, and think that the proportion of risky liabilities or risky loans is on the high side, which is quite different from the disclosed data. This is actually a loan with risk factors or potential risks, but it is often misunderstood as a non-performing loan. Some people arbitrarily enlarge the credit risk of China's banking industry, identify some loans with potential risks as non-performing loans or call them non-performing loans, and use this as a reason to falsely question the non-performing loan ratio disclosed by banks.
According to the Global Financial Stability Report released by the International Monetary Fund in April 20 16, the risk debt ratio of China's banking industry is 15.5%. The definition of "risk debt" refers to the situation that EBITDA's profit (before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) is not enough to pay the interest of the current year. However, the report also counted the risk debts of the sample enterprises for two consecutive years, which dropped to 9%, a decrease of 6.5 percentage points. Obviously, loans with risk factors are not actual non-performing loans. Based on this, it is speculated that if statistics continue for three years, the risk debt of sample enterprises may drop to a lower level, which is generally consistent with the data disclosed by the banking industry. This also shows that the quality of credit assets of China Bank is true. Even if a company has the above-mentioned debt risk for many years, it only increases the probability of default. As long as the enterprise has the will to perform the contract and other sources of debt repayment, it will not necessarily default.
From the actual situation, some potential risk factors will indeed lead to non-performing loans, but most of them will not worsen. According to ICBC's follow-up analysis of overdue loans, it is found that 70% of overdue loans have controllable risks, nearly half of which are technical, and the overdue time is less than 10 day. Only about 30% of overdue loans are expected to lose money. If the work is done in a down-to-earth and meticulous manner, a considerable number of overdue loans can be kept within the time limit, and there will be no such big scissors difference, which will also reduce some people's doubts.
It can be seen that the loan with potential risk factors is a very complicated problem, which needs to be analyzed in detail through the appearance. However, from the perspective of bank credit risk management, this issue really needs to be highly concerned. If we are not careful, we do not take timely measures or take ineffective measures against risk factors and potential risks, more potential risks will be transformed into real risks. Therefore, it is necessary to prevent and control risks in advance and avoid or reduce the impact on the quality of credit assets as much as possible. In fact, this is also the most important content of bank credit risk management.
Finally, correctly treat the batch transfer and disposal of non-performing loans. In recent years, the proportion of non-performing loans handled by commercial banks in China has gradually increased, from 65,438+00% in 2065,438+03 to 32% in 2065,438+05. As a result, some people think that banks are covering up non-performing loans by moving them out of their balance sheets through this batch transfer.
Cash collection and write-off of bad debts are the most important ways for banks to deal with non-performing loans, and batch transfer is actually a combination of cash collection and write-off of bad debts. Batch disposal of non-performing loans is also a common way to dispose of non-performing loans internationally, so there is no problem of covering up non-performing loans. From the analysis of China's current situation, the disposal of bank non-performing loans, such as write-off and debt repayment, is subject to certain policy constraints and market environment restrictions. Some loans will be difficult to write off in time due to many factors, such as changing circumstances, overlapping and involving many responsible persons, and some collateral will be difficult to handle, which is very different from similar banks in the world. Although asset securitization has started, it is only tentative. At present, the market is still small, constrained by long process, many links and high cost, which is far from meeting the needs of banks for the disposal of non-performing loans. Debt-to-equity swap is also being explored, but there may be more problems to be studied.
Commercial batch transfer is a good way to deal with non-performing loans and is welcomed by the banking industry. However, because there are few institutions that can participate in batch disposal, the market for batch transfer is limited and the demand is increasing, the price of non-performing assets is gradually decreasing and the transfer cost is increasing. The repayment rate of some batch transfer packages is less than 10% of the face value of the loan, and some of them are even basically not repaid.
It is precisely because the channels and methods of bulk transfer and disposal of non-performing loans are relatively narrow, lacking sufficient market space, suitable investors and corresponding tools, forcing banks to try to find new ways and methods of bulk transfer and disposal through innovation within the framework of existing laws, regulations and policies, so that non-performing loans can be disposed of more effectively.