New China is about to celebrate its 60th birthday. Standing at a new historical starting point and looking forward to the future direction of China's economy, Xinhua News Agency economic analysts have conducted extensive and in-depth research on the internationalization process of the RMB, the impact of new energy on China's automobile industry, China's future energy consumption pattern, and the future of China. The development trends of the banking industry, the prospects of China's textile industry, the prosperity of cultural and creative industries, the new stage of online life, the balance of food supply and demand, the deepening of the capital market and the level of urbanization development have been made. Full range of forecasts. It is not difficult to see from this that economic internationalization, industrial upgrading, and market deepening will run through the entire process of China's economic development in the future. 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In 2020, the RMB's proportion in international trade settlement will exceed 10, and its proportion in international reserves and foreign exchange transactions will even be as high as 15. By 2020, in the absence of a collapse depreciation of the US dollar, the exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar will be around 4.2:1, with an average annual appreciation of approximately 4.5. In the next 10 years, the process of RMB internationalization will be more driven by the sustained and rapid growth of my country's economy and foreign trade. The accelerated internationalization of RMB will promote my country's interest rate and exchange rate reform, capital market expansion, and improvement of monetary supervision and control. Compared with the scale of my country's economy and the proportion of foreign trade in the global total, the international status of my country's RMB has obviously lagged behind. However, the improvement of the level of RMB internationalization has been restricted by my country's economic growth model and financial supervision level. The impact of this financial crisis on the global economy and existing major international currencies, especially the US dollar, has provided a rare opportunity to accelerate the internationalization of the RMB. It is estimated that in the next 10 years, my country's GDP will grow at an average annual rate of 8. By 2020, my country's total economic volume will reach about 75.7 trillion yuan, which is approximately equivalent to 11 trillion U.S. dollars based on the current exchange rate. Taking into account the appreciation of the RMB, my country's economic scale may then be close to the level of the United States, more than twice that of Japan, and equivalent to 20% of the total global GDP. In terms of trade, my country's imports and exports will also grow at an average annual rate of 8, which will still be faster than the global average growth rate of 5. As a result, my country's total foreign trade will reach 6.4 trillion US dollars by 2020, greatly surpassing the United States and ranking first in the world, accounting for 13% of the total global trade by then. And my country's foreign trade will turn from surplus to deficit. In 2020, the proportion of RMB in international trade settlement will be roughly equivalent to the proportion of my country's foreign trade in global trade, while the proportion of RMB in reserve assets may be higher. The fetters of RMB internationalization still exist. First of all, my country's economic growth relies too much on exports and investment. The double surplus of trade and investment hinders the export of RMB, which is the primary condition for the internationalization of the currency. Even if all foreign trade and investment are settled in RMB, the double surplus of exports and investments will absorb the outflow of RMB through import payments and foreign investment, resulting in a shortage of overseas RMB circulation, or the only way to support the international circulation of RMB is to significantly increase foreign exchange reserves. Need, that is, the inflow of foreign exchange such as US dollars is exchanged for the output of RMB. The process of RMB going global will also be accompanied by the further opening and expansion of my country's capital market, providing overseas RMB holders with a relatively sufficient "asset pool" for investment. The formation mechanism of RMB interest rates and exchange rates will also be more market-oriented, reducing the risk of holding RMB. Controls on the entry and exit of funds under the capital account will be relaxed to meet the liquidity requirements of RMB asset investors for investment safety and profitability. These trends will promote the improvement of my country's monetary and financial control methods. Within 10 years, it will still be difficult for the RMB to become a freely convertible currency.

However, the steady appreciation of the RMB is the general trend. It is expected that the cumulative appreciation against the US dollar will be more than 60 by 2020, slowly at first and then quickly, with an average annual appreciation of about 4.5. Trend 2: New energy will help China become an automobile power. A number of world-renowned mass brands will be born in the mid- to low-end automobile market. By 2020, my country’s automobile ownership will still lag far behind the United States, and the number of automobiles per thousand people will still be Not as good as the world average. The pressure on energy and environmental protection brought by the rapid growth of the automobile market will promote the development of new energy vehicles in my country and is likely to become an opportunity for my country's automobile industry to narrow the gap between China's automobile industry and the powerful automobile countries. In the past 10 years, my country's automobile production and market have grown at a rate that is nearly double the GDP growth rate, and private consumption has become the largest driving force for the rapid growth of my country's automobile market. In 10 years' time, cars will be as popular in my country's cities as color TVs are today, becoming a necessity for urban residents' daily lives. It will be very common for families in big cities to own two or more cars, and cars will also enter rural areas on a large scale. Some models that can be used as both transportation tools and means of production, such as light trucks, pickups, and off-road vehicles, will be Rural areas have opened up a vast market. China's new car consumer market may surpass the United States in size sooner than imagined, and this day will come in 2015. In 2020, my country's annual automobile production will exceed 20 million vehicles, doubling this year's volume. By then, my country's car ownership will reach at least 185 million, becoming the world's largest car consumer market after the United States. The rapidly growing Chinese automobile market will put tremendous pressure on energy and environmental protection, forcing China to accelerate the development of new energy vehicles while continuing to improve the energy-saving and emission-reducing technologies of traditional automobiles. Technological progress will help China's automobile industry narrow the gap with the world's automobile powers. If we adhere to the development idea of ????putting ourselves first in the development of new energy vehicles, our country is likely to take the lead in making breakthroughs in the field of new energy vehicles and realize the transformation of our country's automobile industry from large to strong. In 2020, our country will become one of the countries with the largest number of new energy vehicles of all types in the world. In 2020, the proportion of my country's automobile exports in total domestic production will increase from 7.3 last year to about 20. With the massive export of automobiles, China will give birth to a number of world-renowned mass brands in the mid- to low-end automobile market. Ten years ago, there were 110 complete vehicle manufacturers in China. The output of the three major automobile groups, FAW, Second Automobile Works and SAIC, accounted for 44% of the entire domestic output. In 2008, although the number of domestic complete vehicle manufacturers dropped to 82, the output of the three major automobile groups The group's output as a share of total domestic output increased by less than five percentage points to 48.7. In the next 10 years, the status of the three major groups in the country may face challenges from other companies catching up. Trend Three: Energy consumption ranks first in the world. The gap between domestic energy output and demand is widening, and the proportion of energy imports in total consumption will further increase. In the next 10 years, China will surpass the United States and become the world's largest energy consumer. However, per capita energy consumption The volume is still only half of that of Japan and Western European countries, less than 1/3 of that of the United States, and equivalent to the world average. The gap between my country's domestic energy output and demand will further widen, and the proportion of energy imports in total consumption will increase from 3 currently to 20 in 2020. my country's energy policy will face tremendous pressure, and international calls for China to assume more emission reduction obligations will gradually grow. Domestic people's environmental awareness will also be significantly enhanced. The two will jointly promote the transformation of my country's energy structure to cleanliness and the transformation of economic structure to low carbonization. In recent years, my country has intensified its energy conservation and emission reduction policies, and the energy consumption elasticity coefficient has gradually dropped from 1.6 in 2004 to 0.44 in 2008, which is extremely rare in developing countries and new economies. If this ultra-low elasticity coefficient of energy consumption compared to developing countries can be maintained, when my country's GDP grows at an average rate of 8 in the next 10 years, energy consumption will grow by about 4 on average annually, and by 2020, my country's total energy consumption will exceed 45 100 million tons of standard coal, equivalent to 3.2 billion barrels of crude oil, close to the combined output of the United States, Britain, France, Germany and Italy. The increase in domestic energy production will not be able to meet the growth in demand, and my country's dependence on foreign energy will further increase. It is expected that by 2020, nearly 20% of my country's energy demand will need to be met through imports.

It is estimated that in 2020, my country's net energy imports will exceed 800 million tons of standard coal, equivalent to 560 million barrels of oil equivalent, accounting for approximately 1/5 of the world's total energy exports. The growth in energy demand brought about by the rapid economic development of China and other developing countries will rapidly push up energy prices. Taking oil as an example, in 10 years the price of crude oil will reach US$200/barrel (constant price in 2008), or at least firmly stand above US$150/barrel. There is basically no suspense that the actual prices of coal, natural gas, liquefied gas and uranium will double from today. The carbon dioxide emissions caused by the growth of energy consumption are increasingly becoming the focus of global attention. In the next 10 years, global climate and environmental issues will surpass terrorism to become the number one international issue. According to "BP World Energy Statistics", from 2000 to 2008, global annual energy consumption increased by approximately 2 billion barrels of oil equivalent, of which my country's consumption increase accounted for more than half. Vigorously developing non-carbon-based energy sources such as hydropower, nuclear power, wind power and even solar energy, as well as vigorously developing and promoting clean energy technologies such as sulfur recovery and carbon capture, are the only way out of my country's energy dilemma. It is expected that by 2020, the proportion of coal in my country's energy consumption will drop from the current 70 to less than 60, the proportion of relatively clean and efficient oil and gas will increase from 23 to nearly 27, and the proportion of non-carbon-based energy will increase from 7 to 15 or even more. Trend No. 4: Banks move towards “financial department stores”. Bank leveraged products will have a positive impact on investment in the real economy by improving the efficiency of fund use. In the next 10 years, my country’s commercial banks will shift from the traditional core of “financing intermediary” to the core of “wealth management”. "As a core transformation, retail business will become the main source of profits for banks in the future, and the proportion of corporate business that currently contributes the most to bank profits will decrease significantly. In the future, banks will reduce their reliance on deposits to raise funds. The highly leveraged financial derivatives brought about by financial innovation will greatly improve the efficiency of capital use. The profit model of traditional bank deposit and loan interest rate spreads will gradually give way to the profit model of intermediary business. In the future, the significance of banks to customers will no longer be "piggy banks" and "loan wholesalers", but "financial department stores" with banking business as the core and radiating into multiple fields such as insurance, securities, funds, and property rights management. Customer wealth asset management will be the core business of banks. In the future, when banks manage finances on behalf of their customers, their investment areas will expand from traditional areas such as stocks, bonds, and funds to structured derivatives, commodities, and even works of art. Banks will no longer focus on counter services. The financial terminals currently used at bank branches for customers to make payments, deposits, withdrawals, and inquiries are expected to "fly into the homes of ordinary people." Online banking will complete various services that could only be handled at bank branches in the past. . As the most convenient payment tool launched by banks for customers, bank cards will make a big leap forward in terms of functionality and appearance. As the business of non-bank financial institutions gradually penetrates into banks, in order to pursue economies of scale and spread risks, large banks have to adopt means such as mergers and acquisitions to expand their scale and improve their competitiveness. This will give rise to a number of A financial holding company engaged in mixed operations with commercial banks as the main body. As a financial accelerator, bank leveraged products have a positive impact on investment in the real economy by improving the efficiency of capital use. At the same time, bank consumer credit promotes an increase in consumer leverage and plays a positive role in the economic transformation strategy of expanding domestic demand and adjusting structure. Trend No. 5: From a big textile country to a powerful textile country. Innovation will promote the extension of my country's textile and apparel industry structure to the high end of the value chain. In the next 10 years, China will transform from a large country in the textile industry to a powerful country. While the overall textile and apparel market maintains rapid growth, the expansion of the home, especially industrial, textiles market will be particularly eye-catching. In terms of total fiber consumption, clothing, household and industrial textiles will "three-thirds of the world". As an important symbol of the changing times, clothing records historical changes in a non-textual way. In the next 10 years, it is an undoubted trend that clothing will become more diversified. The concept of leisure life will penetrate into clothing consumption more widely and deeply. People are more pursuing to show their cultural level and taste through clothing. The development prospects of my country's clothing market are unlimited.

Looking back on the 30 years of reform and opening up, the number of garment enterprises in my country has increased from only about 20,000 to nearly 300,000, the number of employees has increased from less than one million to more than 4 million, and clothing output has increased from less than 2 billion pieces to more than 20 billion pieces. , clothing exports have grown from about US$1 billion to more than US$100 billion, and my country's total garment exports account for more than 30% of the world's total exports. At present, the per capita clothing expenditure in my country's urban areas exceeds 1,000 yuan, which is more than five times that of rural residents. In the future, both urban and rural clothing consumer markets will present huge room for development. Compared with clothing, the market space for home and industrial textiles is broader. At present, the proportion of fiber consumed in my country's clothing, household and industrial textiles is 53:33:14. Compared with 68:22:10 at the beginning of this century, the proportion of clothing has dropped significantly. It is expected that in 10 years, this ratio will evolve to 40:35:25, similar to the "three-thirds of the world" pattern in today's European and American countries. In the next 10 years, the growth point of my country's textile industry and its contribution to society will be mainly reflected in industrial textiles. The market size of industrial textiles will expand rapidly, covering transportation, railways, water conservancy, machinery, medicine and health, military industry and other fields. The urbanization process and the construction of new rural areas will also fully unleash the market demand for home textiles such as decorative textiles and bedding. In the next 10 years, the textile industry will still play an irreplaceable supporting role in the process of realizing my country's national economy's development goals in the first 20 years of this century. The scale of the textile industry will maintain its growth momentum, but the growth rate will slow down and the industrial structure will be optimized and upgraded. It is expected that by 2020, my country's total fiber processing volume will exceed 40 million tons, accounting for 40% of the global total processing volume.