However, in the past two years, the state has always maintained a high pressure on the regulation of the property market. On the one hand, it has controlled the pressure of buying houses brought about by the excessive rise in housing prices. More importantly, if the property market bubble is allowed to gather, it will inevitably affect the overall development.

For example, when an earthquake occurs, it is easy to produce a dammed lake. If it is allowed to develop until it collapses naturally, it will eventually cause more serious losses and the consequences will be unimaginable. So is the property market. It is wise to keep squeezing out bubbles during the process of generating bubbles. These experiences are also based on the lessons of major property market bubbles in history.

After entering 2020, the state's regulation of the property market has not been relaxed because of the impact of the "epidemic". According to data from the Central Plains Real Estate Research Center, in 2020, the frequency of real estate regulation was nearly 500 times. Under the continuous control, in fact, from the difference between the north and south property markets, the property market has entered a period of differentiation.

Of course, some people may disagree, thinking that the frequency of property market regulation in recent years is quite high, and they are used to it. If you think so, you may be all wet.

By August 2020, the central bank and the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development jointly convened some leading housing enterprises to "talk", and at the same time issued an unprecedented "three red lines" ban, which began to be tried out in participating housing enterprises. According to media reports, this is not a temporary measure, but a long-term brewing. From the content point of view, the main goal is to "reduce the debt of housing enterprises". Statistics from relevant institutions show that more than 80% of housing enterprises "exceed the standard". From this perspective, debt reduction is universal.

How big is the country's determination to reduce the debt of housing enterprises? In the report of Cailian 202 1 1 5, it was mentioned that the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development and the central bank recently convened a meeting of key housing enterprises, including some "new face" housing enterprises. Quoting people familiar with the matter, "the pilot project of financing' three red lines' is expected to expand". To tell the truth, it is self-evident that the intensity of expanding the "ban" pilot in such a short time.

In fact, shortly after the release of this new "ban" regulation, leading real estate enterprises began to promote hundreds of properties nationwide, with a minimum discount of 30%. It can also be seen from here that the state's debt reduction for housing enterprises is real, and it is integrated with the conventional property market regulation. Vanke Yu Liang said that "real estate has finally returned to an ordinary industry", which shows that the impact on housing enterprises is not small.

Just when many people thought that 2020 would pass, on the last day of 2020, the central bank and China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission jointly issued a new ban called "the fifth red line of mortgage", which stipulated the specific proportion of banks' real estate loans and personal mortgages in total loans.

It is worth mentioning that most of the mortgage loans are collected by several large banks, with the purpose of facilitating control, and the possibility of small bank funds entering the property market illegally is greatly reduced. There is no "buffer period" for the implementation of this regulation, and it will be formally implemented the next day, namely 202 1 1.

Whether it is "three red lines" or "five red lines", it all points to debt reduction. Housing enterprises have to reduce debts, and the amount of personal mortgage loans has also been suppressed, which is also reducing debts. This means that the era of deleveraging in the entire industry has arrived.

In this big environment, the first "bad news" of 202 1 came from the property market.

Some people say that 202 1 is the worst year in the past decade, but the best year in the future is 10. This sentence is most suitable for the real estate industry, with 65,438+10,000 developers bearing the brunt. On the one hand, they have to reduce their debts to the "supervision line", on the other hand, they have to repay the debts that are constantly maturing.

According to the report of China, a broker of Securities Times, on October 7, 20021year/kloc-0, the debts due by real estate enterprises will reach1244.8 billion yuan, up by 36% year-on-year, not including the ultra-short-term bonds issued in 20021year. What is this concept? Compared with 2020, the debt due exceeded 1/3, which also created the first "trillion debt maturity year". According to the original words of the report, "the debt repayment pressure of housing enterprises continues to rise" and "small and medium-sized housing enterprises will be the first to feel the tight pressure of the bond market".

In short, 202 1 year is the "historical peak" of the debts due by housing enterprises. What should I do if I pay so many debts?

Obviously, so many red lines are "locked", it is definitely not feasible to rely on "borrowing new debts to pay off old debts". Insiders said, "It is the most feasible way to reduce the price of housing enterprises, and its strength and strategy also determine the speed of payment." According to common sense, the debt due this year has increased substantially, and its promotion will be stronger than in previous years. Now everyone is concerned about the "three red lines+five red lines" ban new regulations+"debt maturity amount". Is the developer fully promoting or partially promoting?

Judging from the sales situation in the second half of last year, houses in the core areas of most core cities have achieved good results. Therefore, it is less necessary for real estate enterprises to take the initiative to reduce prices when they can sell. Judging from the actions of housing enterprises in recent months, the promotion trend of the two types of housing is obvious, and the discount is also the strongest. Obviously, these two types of new houses are on sale, and the fate of second-hand houses can be imagined, and they have all entered the "cold palace" and ushered in a tide of depreciation.

The first category is shops with bad locations. Recently, a brand of housing enterprises launched "zero yuan to buy shops, 10 years to return the purchase price", which caused a heated discussion for a time. There are two main reasons why shops are so "bargaining":

1. Stores have large inventory and slow melting. Liu Cheng, president of Yadong Construction Group, once said that the supply of shops by developers is almost saturated, and basically every community needs construction, and many shops with bad lots become warehouses. For example, according to institutional data, Kunming's commercial real estate de-chemical cycle is the epitome of the city 100 months. Not only the inventory data of commercial real estate is high, but also the speed of de-melting is slow. On the whole, according to the data of 20201-1released by the statistical department, the sales area of commercial business premises decreased by over 1 1% year-on-year. It can be seen that the inventory has not decreased, but continues to increase with the passage of time.

2. Another well-known reason is the impact of e-commerce. Wang Jianlin once made a bet with Ma Yun that e-commerce would replace the "1 small goal" of physical stores. Now eight years have passed. Although e-commerce has not completely replaced physical stores, the share of e-commerce is indeed growing. The operation of physical stores where passengers are attracted is a difficult problem. If it is not the core location, it is not easy for the landlord to rent it out. Without cash flow returns, who will buy the shops here?

The second kind of housing in the outer suburbs of the city. Take 2020 as an example. Although the property market is generally stable, even the hottest cities have poorly sold properties, and deserted cities also have well-sold properties. In other words, the "hot and cold" of different plates and lots in the same city is also different. Generally speaking, the core area is relatively good, and the outer suburbs and counties are difficult areas. Taking the hot cities investigated by the author as an example, many buildings in the urban area need to be "shaken", while the number of buildings in the outer suburbs that have been opened for half a year to 1 year will be reduced to below 30%. With new houses, the mobility of second-hand houses in the region can be imagined.

To sum up, with 202 1 entering the peak period of debt repayment by real estate enterprises, coupled with the new regulation of "red line ban", developers may have to take the initiative to "ship", and the two types of houses mentioned above are likely to be the first to be "neglected". For us property buyers, we should keep our eyes open, especially for investors not to fall into the "pit".