Market reasons and epidemic reasons.
1. Due to market reasons, the amount of loans obtained by individual industrial and commercial households is closely related to rectifying the market.
1, the cause of the epidemic, the epidemic will also lead to a decline in the number of loans accepted by individual industrial and commercial households.
Influencing factors of loan scale of commercial banks
There are three basic factors that affect and determine the loan scale: (1) loan demand. If the effective demand for loans increases in the process of social reproduction, the scale of bank loans will inevitably expand accordingly. Or vice versa, Dallas to the auditorium ② the tightness of the central bank's monetary policy. Under the tight monetary policy, the central bank will reduce the loan capacity of commercial banks, increase the capital cost of commercial banks, and reduce the loans or discounts of commercial banks to the central bank by raising the deposit reserve ratio, rediscount interest rate and refinancing interest rate, thus prompting commercial banks to reduce the loan scale; Or vice versa, the availability of loans from Dallas to the auditorium, that is, the amount of funds available to banks.
/kloc-the reasons for the negative growth of personal loans in January
Hello, according to the latest statistics, the negative growth of personal loans in 1 month is mainly caused by the poor economic situation, insufficient consumer confidence and policy restrictions. Among them, the poor economic situation is the main reason for the negative growth of personal loans in 1 month. Due to the slowdown of economic growth, the lack of consumer confidence, the decrease of consumption expenditure and personal consumption loans, personal loans have experienced negative growth. In addition, policy restrictions are also an important reason for the negative growth of personal loans in 1 month. The government has adopted a series of policies and measures to restrict the universality of personal loans, including strengthening supervision, limiting the loan amount and raising the loan interest rate. These policies and measures have had a negative impact on the development of personal loan inclusiveness, resulting in a negative growth of personal loan inclusiveness in 1 month.
The growth rate of credit card loans dropped significantly.
Affected by the tightening of supervision and the exposure of credit risks of some assets, the growth rate of credit card loans of many listed banks dropped significantly in the first half of 20 19. At the same time, among the 8 listed banks that released credit card asset data, 7 banks experienced an increase in NPL ratio in this field. Analysts believe that this is related to the consumption of debt and macroeconomic fluctuations.
Jiang Chao, chief economist of Haitong Securities (600837), said that on the one hand, the quality of credit card loans is related to the outbreak of online lending platforms such as P2P since last year, and on the other hand, due to the tight overall credit last year, among the subjects behind credit cards, those with poor qualifications and weak ability to obtain credit resources are difficult to pay. Especially in 20 17, China's credit card business expanded rapidly, and the increase in card issuance was accompanied by a certain decline in customer qualifications, which led to an increase in the proportion of borrowers with poor qualifications.
However, he stressed that credit card loans in China have developed rapidly in recent years. Compared with international experience, China's credit card indicators are still at a relatively safe level.
The overall growth rate is shrinking.
Specifically, the growth rate of card issuance and overdraft of big banks slowed down obviously, and the number of cards issued by Agricultural Bank of China in the first half of the year alone exceeded 654.38 billion. For other banks, the number of credit cards (including quasi-credit cards) registered by Bank of Communications nationwide was 7 1.47 million, a decrease of 80,000 in the first half of the year; In the first half of the year, the accumulated consumption was about 65.438+0.42 billion yuan, down 2.90% year-on-year; The overdraft balance was 454.677 billion yuan, down 10% from the end of last year. In the first half of the year, ICBC issued 3.45 million new cards, and the credit card overdraft was 62,865,438+73 million yuan, a slight increase of 0.27% over the end of last year. In the first half of the year, CCB and BOC issued 6.6 million cards and 7.67 million cards respectively, with credit card overdrafts of 672,654.38+48 million yuan and 457.676 billion yuan respectively, up by 3/kloc-0.9% and 7.35% respectively.
From the perspective of the whole industry, the "General Situation of Payment System Operation in the Second Quarter of 20 19" recently released by the central bank shows that by the end of the first half of 20 19, the credit balance of bank cards, including credit cards and debit cards, was 7.23 trillion yuan, up 5.55% from 6.85 trillion yuan at the beginning of the year. In 20 18, the annual growth rate of credit balance of bank cards reached 23.33%. The balance of credit card loans increased rapidly from less than 0.25 trillion yuan at the end of 2009 to 6.26 trillion yuan at the end of June 20 18, with an average year-on-year growth rate of 50%.
Wang Jianzhong, vice president of China Merchants Bank (600036), said that the growth rate of China Merchants Bank's credit cards was slightly slow, but it achieved the expected goal. This is because China Merchants Bank has taken the initiative to properly control the growth of credit cards since the fourth quarter of last year according to the risk situation.
The non-performing rate has increased.
The growth rate of credit card scale is shrinking, partly due to the active adjustment of banks and the rising risk.
20 19 The overall operation of the payment system in the second quarter showed that the total outstanding credit of credit cards overdue for half a year exceeded 80 billion yuan, reaching 83.884 billion yuan, up 5. 19% from the previous month, accounting for 1. 17% of the credit card balance. In fact, this phenomenon began to be exposed in the fourth quarter of last year, and many banks adjusted the income structure of credit card business accordingly to control the increase of credit card loans.
Specific to different banks, the non-performing rate of credit card overdraft of Bank of Communications was 2.49%, which was 0.97 percentage points higher than the end of last year. The non-performing rate of credit card loans was 2.38%, up 0.57 percentage points from the end of last year. The credit card non-performing rate of Shanghai Pudong Development Bank (600,000) also rose rapidly, with the bank's credit card transaction volume of 1.04 trillion yuan, up by 25.69% year-on-year; The total income of credit card business was 28.299 billion yuan, up 2.49% year-on-year; The non-performing rate of credit card loans was 2.38%, up 0.57 percentage points from the end of last year.
Exploring the reasons behind it, "* * * debt" has been mentioned many times in the interim reports of many banks.
"Affected by external factors such as the uncertainty of the international and domestic economic and financial situation and the rising debt risk, the risk of the entire consumer finance industry has increased, but the overall risk performance has remained at a low level." Ping An Bank (00000 1) said that since the end of 20 17, the bank has adjusted its risk policy in advance, focusing on preventing the risk of * * * debt, and at the same time, it has taken measures such as quota control and prudent credit granting for customers in * * * debt, high debt and high-risk areas, effectively controlling and reducing the proportion of high-risk customers, and the quality of new business assets has steadily improved. It is expected that the optimization effect of these control measures will gradually appear in the second half of 20 19.
The only decline in credit card non-performing rate is CITIC Bank (60 1998). The bank's credit card non-performing loan balance was 8.678 billion yuan, with a NPL ratio of 1.74%, down 0.1/percentage point from the end of last year. However, the bank still mentioned in its interim report that "the risk of credit card business has increased due to the superposition of two factors".
Since 20 18, the number of market lenders such as cash loans, internet consumer loans and P2P platforms has been increasing, and the debt risks have been gathering, and the asset quality of the market * * * debt customers has fluctuated obviously, which has a tendency to be transmitted to the credit card industry. At the same time, with the continuous adjustment of industrial structure, the employment and income stability of employees in some regions and industries have been affected to some extent, resulting in the reduction of repayment ability and willingness of some customers.
Supervision pays attention to credit card risk
In view of the various risks of credit card business, supervision began to strengthen. Not long ago, Beijing Banking Insurance Regulatory Bureau issued "Regulatory Opinions on Strengthening Risk Prevention and Control of Bank Cards" (hereinafter referred to as "Opinions"). Five of the 13 measures are aimed at credit card business, which shows the degree of attention.
The "Opinions" pointed out that banks within their jurisdiction should strengthen the monitoring of the capital flow of credit card overdraft and cash installment business, and ensure that personal credit card overdraft is used in the consumer field, not in non-consumer fields such as production and operation, house purchase investment, etc. At the same time, we will strengthen the analysis of the characteristics of new cash-out risks such as small multi-cycle cash-out repayment of credit cards and overseas cash-out, and take effective measures to prevent risks such as delayed exposure of credit risks, accumulation of bank debt risks and cross-border risks.
In terms of strengthening credit line management, the Opinions suggest that banks within their jurisdiction should check the credit line of customers at least once a year, and at the same time set the frequency, validity period and time interval of temporary line increase reasonably, so that a single temporary line increase does not exceed one billing cycle. In this regard, a person from the Beijing Banking Insurance Regulatory Bureau said that this requirement is mainly to prevent the temporary quota from being raised for too long in a single time and repeatedly.
Prior to this, the Shanghai Banking Insurance Regulatory Bureau issued seven tickets related to credit card business in July, all of which involved "failure to comply with the total credit management system".
Some local regulators told reporters that strengthening the supervision of credit cards, on the one hand, is to prevent the illegal flow of funds such as credit cards to other fields, on the other hand, it is also to prevent the debt risk and push up the leverage ratio of residents.
In this regard, Guangdong Banking Insurance Regulatory Bureau reminds individual consumers: First, personal data should not be easily leaked to strangers to prevent illegal use; Second, use the card correctly, spend rationally and avoid repayment; Third, if you have questions about bank card accounts, you should communicate through official channels; Fourth, it happens through formal channels.
Reasons for the year-on-year increase in loan balance and the year-on-year decrease in growth rate
The loan balance increased year-on-year, and the reasons for the year-on-year decrease are as follows:
1. Adjustment of monetary policy: In order to reduce the growth rate of loan balance, the central bank will implement monetary policy to curb the increase of loan balance, for example, raising the deposit reserve ratio or implementing targeted reduction of the deposit reserve ratio.
2. Changes in the macroeconomic situation: Changes in the macroeconomic situation will also affect the increase or decrease of the loan balance. Once the economic situation is bad, the financing needs of enterprises will be affected, and the increase of loan balance will be reduced.
3. Improvement of regulatory policies: The government will also strengthen the supervision of financial institutions and limit the loan supply of financial institutions, thus reducing the increase in loan balance.
This concludes the introduction of the reasons for the decline in loan scale and the reasons and countermeasures for the decline in loan scale. I wonder if you have found the information you need?