First, under the tone of "destocking in the property market", the loan control policy is mainly loose.
Compared with the previous tightening policy, 20 15 can be described as the "dividend year" of the policy, and the favorable policy of multiple mortgages has greatly warmed up the market. Therefore, many property buyers are paying close attention to the direction of the loan policy next year. "Jia Wei Anjie" pointed out that under the background that the real estate market has greatly accelerated the digestion of inventory in recent years, the overall tone of macro-control policies will still tend to be loose next year, so the overall introduction of mortgage control policies will still be dominated by the loose trend.
Second, the overall mortgage interest rate remains stable, and loan demand will continue to rise steadily.
In recent years, due to the continuous withdrawal of foreign capital, the deposit pressure in third-and fourth-tier cities is too high, the current investment growth rate continues to fall, and the domestic economic growth level is at a relatively slow stage. Therefore, the central bank began to gradually loosen monetary policy in the second half of 20 14, and by 20 15, it was "injecting water" into the financial market by cutting interest rates five times in a row and reducing interest rates by RRR several times, and stimulating domestic demand by increasing economic leverage. The recently mentioned "supply-side reform" also indicates that the future economy will exert its strength from both supply and demand. Under the background of increasing downward pressure on the economy, steady growth is still the main tone of regulation. Therefore, "Jia Wei Anjie" predicts that the overall interest rate level will stabilize next year, and the demand for mortgage will continue to rise steadily under the stimulus of loose monetary policy.
Third, on 20 16, the transaction volume of the mortgage market rose steadily, and the overall level of house prices stabilized.
20 15 driven by many favorable policies such as interest rate reduction and RRR interest rate reduction, the market expectations of both buyers and second-hand housing owners have changed, and the transaction volume of the mortgage market has gradually stabilized and rebounded. Next year, with multiple policies in the property market and relatively stable bank loans, the transaction volume of the mortgage market will remain stable. In addition, since the beginning of this year, under the escort of the central bank's repeated interest rate cuts, two sets of down payment cuts and the "second child" policy, house prices have not increased significantly, which also shows that buyers' sensitivity to policies has decreased, coupled with the negative impact of the downturn in the real economy in recent years on house prices, and the "fever reduction" of commercial real estate also reflects the great cost pressure on the real estate industry as a whole, so the future trend of house prices will still be mainly stable, and there will be no obvious growth or decline.
Four, the utilization rate of provident fund loans increased or "flat" with commercial loans.
In the past, the advantage of low interest rate of provident fund loans was the only biggest advantage, but the application threshold was high and the upper limit of the amount was low, so not many people used provident fund loans to buy houses. In 20 15, after a series of policy dividends, such as increasing the maximum loan amount, reducing the down payment ratio of second homes, relaxing the five-year limit of state-run provident fund, and reducing interest rates five times, the interest rate of provident fund loans has dropped to 3.25%, which makes the performance of provident fund loans very eye-catching this year. "Jia Wei Anjie" pointed out that under the stimulus of a series of loan policies, the use efficiency of provident fund loans will be greatly improved next year, and it will be "equally divided" with commercial loans, and its proportion in mortgage loans will increase. In addition, with the introduction of policies such as off-site loans, securitization of provident fund assets, and expanding the scope of provident fund withdrawal, the utilization rate of funds within the provident fund is expected to increase, and buyers will be more flexible in using the provident fund.
Fifth, the ratio of second-time home buyers who continue to enter the market for the first time to improved people is about 6:4.
From the credit policy of 20 15, it can be seen that on the basis of the overall credit differentiation policy, from the second half of 20 14, the policy focus has increased the support for improved home buyers. Whether it is the "3.30" policy in the first half of the year or the "second child" policy in the second half of the year, the easing efforts are aimed at the improved population. "Jia Wei Anjie" pointed out that due to favorable policies, the improved population concentrated on entering the market in 20 15, and this group of people will continue to exert their strength and relay into the market next year. In addition to the improved groups, the loan demand of the "just-needed" groups who "just need" home ownership for the first time is still very huge. After these people break through the five-year purchase one after another, the environment for entering the market next year will be more favorable when the interest rate space is relatively loose after the bank cuts interest rates. It is estimated that the ratio of first-time home buyers to improved home buyers will be about 6:4 next year.
Sixth, bank credit focuses on "mortgage". Traditional finance will lower the threshold for review.
"Jia Wei Anjie" pointed out that with the macro-control to increase support for the mortgage market, the "mortgage" business in the field of bank credit is likely to become a "hot cake" again. Previously, affected by the strict mortgage policy, banks generally paid more attention to SME loans. In 20 15, with the favorable mortgage policy, it can be seen from the favorable interest rate of the first suite of banks and the stable lending at the end of the year that the proportion of bank capital investment has gradually shifted to "mortgage". With the central bank's repeated RRR cuts, the internal liquidity of banks has increased, and the preferential interest rate and loan interest rate of the first suite of banks will remain stable next year. In addition, with the rise of P2P online lending platform, the traditional financial institutions that have been hit will relax their thresholds in lending and approval, and the loan environment will remain relatively good next year.
Next year, the tax reform will be strengthened to stimulate the transaction temperature in the real estate market.
In this year's macro-control policy, the relaxation of tax and credit control can be described as "two-pronged". In the first half of this year, the policies of "5 to 2" and "3.30" were introduced, and the exemption period of business tax for second-hand housing transfer was adjusted from 5 years to 2 years, so that a large number of "second-hand new houses" were quickly digested in mortgage transactions in the first half of this year. In the second half of this year, the basic idea of the new round of tax reform plan was basically finalized, and it was proposed that mortgage interest could be deducted from taxable income before paying taxes. "Jia Wei Anjie" believes that mortgage interest deduction can save most of the interest of house buyers, so it can be seen that the deed tax, business tax and even individual tax of house purchase in 20 16 are likely to change obviously. The change of house purchase tax will stimulate the increase of transaction volume to some extent.
8. The development of P2P online lending platform is in a blowout state, and the regulatory rules have yet to be implemented.
20 15 is a blowout year for P2P online lending industry to seize the financial market. According to industry data, by the end of 20 1 1.05, the cumulative transaction scale of P2P industry in China had reached 1.25 trillion, and by the end of 201.05, the transaction scale of the industry was about 840 billion yuan. According to the existing scale of the industry and the monthly average transaction data, it is estimated that However, with the frequent industry crises, the P2P industry has been brought into the overall supervision system, but when the specific rules are introduced remains to be discussed. While the P2P industry will develop steadily next year, the regulatory level will undoubtedly improve.
(The above answers were published on 20 15- 12-22. Please refer to the actual purchase policy. )
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