The central bank and the China Banking Regulatory Commission released heavy news about the property market on the evening of the 29th.
On September 29th, the People's Bank of China and the China Banking Regulatory Commission issued a notice, deciding to adjust the differentiated housing credit policy in stages. Eligible city governments can independently decide to maintain, reduce or cancel the lower limit of the first set of local new housing loan interest rates before the end of 2022. At present, the lower limit of the first home loan interest rate is 4. 1%, which also means that the lower limit of the first home loan interest rate in eligible areas can be lowered again.
The central bank said that the introduction of this policy measure is conducive to supporting the city government to make full use of the policy toolbox to promote the stable and healthy development of the real estate market. Within the scope of local policies, banks and customers can negotiate to determine the specific interest rate level of the first set of new housing loans, which is conducive to reducing residents' interest expenses and better supporting rigid housing demand.
The lower limit of the first home loan interest rate can be adjusted to below 4. 1%.
According to the contents of the notice, for cities where the sales price of new commercial housing continues to decline from June to August 2022, the lower limit of the first commercial personal housing loan interest rate will be relaxed in stages before the end of 2022. However, the lower limit of the interest rate policy for two sets of commercial personal housing loans is implemented according to the existing regulations.
The notice gives qualified regions the space for independent supervision. According to the notice, according to the principle of "making policy according to the city", the city governments that meet the above conditions can independently decide to maintain, reduce or cancel the lower limit of the local commercial personal housing loan interest rate in stages according to the changes in the local real estate market situation and regulatory requirements, and the People's Bank of China and the China Banking Regulatory Commission will send agencies to guide the provincial market interest rate pricing self-discipline mechanism to cooperate with the implementation.
In May this year, the central bank issued regulations that the lower limit of the interest rate of the first set of commercial personal housing loans should be adjusted to not less than the quoted interest rate of the loan market minus 20 basis points in the same period, and the lower limit of the interest rate policy of the second set of commercial personal housing loans should be implemented according to the current regulations.
According to the latest LPR for more than 5 years, the current lower limit of the first home loan interest rate is 4. 1%. Analysts pointed out that the introduction of the new notice also means that the lower limit of the first home loan interest rate in eligible cities can be lowered to below 4. 1%.
"At present, the interest rate of the first home mortgage in nearly 80 cities across the country has been lowered to 4. 1%. If we continue to cut down, we can reduce the cost of home ownership. Continuing to cut interest rates is the requirement of implementing the State Council's "supporting housing rigidity and improving demand" and will play a positive role in stabilizing market confidence and market expectations. " Regarding the new policy, Zhang Dawei, chief analyst of Zhongyuan Real Estate, said.
RealData monitoring data shows that due to the downward adjustment of LPR for more than five years on August 22, the mortgage interest rates of Baicheng were all lowered in September. By mid-September, the mainstream mortgage interest rate in 86 of the 103 key cities had been as low as the first lower limit of 4. 1%.
Dong Ximiao, chief researcher of Zhilian Finance, also said that in the case of sluggish housing consumption demand and weak real estate market, it is of medium importance and urgency to adjust the lower limit of the first home loan interest rate, or it will have three effects: First, on the premise of persisting in speculation, stabilize residents' housing consumption expectations and stimulate new housing consumption demand; The second is to convey the signal of stabilizing confidence and market, and promote the stable and healthy development of the real estate market; The third is to reduce housing consumption expenditure, thus boosting residents' willingness and ability to expand consumption.
"Of course, this is only the adjustment of the lower limit of the first home loan interest rate. The actual interest rates implemented by different regions and different banks may be different. From a regional perspective, most second-tier cities may meet the adjustment conditions, but it is difficult to adjust first-tier cities and some provincial capitals; From the perspective of banks, it is expected that most banks will implement the lower limit of the first home loan interest rate. " Dong Ximiao added.
Which areas can adjust the lower limit of the first home loan interest rate?
Judging from the specific notice, there are certain conditions for implementing the new policy. According to the notice, before the end of this year, the lower limit of the first set of commercial personal housing loan interest rate can be relaxed in stages, which is the city where the sales price of new commercial housing decreases from June to August.
Which cities can relax the lower limit of the first home loan interest rate? According to the statistics of many market organizations, among the 70 large and medium-sized cities in the National Bureau of Statistics, there are 23 cities that meet the above conditions, namely Tianjin, Shijiazhuang, Dalian, Harbin, Wuhan, Guiyang, Kunming, Lanzhou, Qinhuangdao, Baotou, Wenzhou, Anqing, Quanzhou, Jining, Yichang, Xiangyang, Yueyang, Changde, Zhanjiang, Guilin and Beihai.
Zhang Dawei also roughly calculated that, from the current point of view, cities that meet the new mortgage interest rate reduction are basically concentrated in third-and fourth-tier cities and some second-tier cities. "Taking the housing prices of 70 big cities in August as an example, 2 1 cities rose year-on-year, and 19 cities rose month-on-month. Most of the new policies can be implemented in third-and fourth-tier cities. " Zhang Dawei added.
The real estate policy is getting stronger and stronger, and the adjustment of the lower limit of the second home loan interest rate has attracted attention.
Zhang Dawei said that, overall, the policy of fine-tuning and loosening real estate is becoming wider and wider, and the policy intensity is getting stronger and stronger. From June 5438 to September, various real estate control policies blowout, accumulated more than 800 times, up 65% year-on-year. More than 200 cities across the country have introduced various policies to stabilize the property market.
Among them, the degree of urban loosening is getting higher and higher. "Since the loosening of third-and fourth-tier cities in the first quarter, second-tier cities have gradually become the main force of loosening cities from April to September, and hot property market cities including Chengdu, Hangzhou, Xiamen and Nanjing have also joined the ranks of stabilizing the property market and saving the property market. More than 30 second-tier cities have issued more than 100 policies to stabilize the property market in the last two months, which has become the main force in the recent property market regulation. " Zhang Dawei pointed out.
In addition, the policy content has been continuously upgraded, from various policies aimed at purchase restriction in the first quarter to policies aimed at credit easing in the second quarter, including more and more mortgage down payment and lower mortgage interest rate. The provident fund policy has become the standard for stabilizing the property market, and more and more previous sales restrictions have been cancelled. The second set of housing identification standards has changed, various talent policies have been superimposed, and taxes and fees have been reduced.
Yan Yuejin, research director of the think tank center of Yiju Research Institute, said that the downward adjustment is a phased adjustment policy and the policy is clear. According to the changes in the local real estate market situation and regulatory requirements, all localities can independently decide to maintain, reduce or cancel the lower limit of the local commercial personal housing loan interest rate. However, from the policy tone, it is mainly downward, aiming at reducing residents' interest expenses and better supporting rigid housing demand.
However, Zhang Dawei also said that he expected stronger policies, such as lowering the interest rate of existing mortgages. In addition, the market is also concerned about the lower limit of the second-home loan interest rate and the mortgage interest rate reduction policy in first-and second-tier cities.