According to the website of the People's Bank of China165438+1October 25th, in order to maintain a reasonable and sufficient liquidity, promote a steady decline in comprehensive financing costs, implement a package of policies and measures to stabilize the economy, and consolidate the foundation for economic stabilization, the People's Bank of China decided to reduce the deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions by 0.25 percentage points on June 5th (except for financial institutions that have implemented the 5% deposit reserve ratio). After this reduction, the weighted average deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions is about 7.8%.
The first point: What is the purpose of RRR cutting?
When talking about the purpose of RRR's interest rate cut, the relevant person in charge of the People's Bank of China said in response to a reporter's question: First, maintain a reasonable and sufficient liquidity, maintain a reasonable increase in the total amount of money and credit, implement a package of policies and measures to stabilize the economy, and increase support for the real economy. The second is to optimize the capital structure of financial institutions, increase the long-term stable sources of funds for financial institutions, enhance the ability of financial institutions to allocate funds, and support industries and small and medium-sized enterprises seriously affected by the epidemic. Third, the RRR cut can reduce the capital cost of financial institutions by about 5.6 billion yuan every year, and the transmission of financial institutions can promote the reduction of the comprehensive financing cost of the real economy.
The People's Bank of China stressed that it should strengthen the implementation of prudent monetary policy, vigorously support the real economy, avoid flooding, give consideration to internal and external balance, give full play to the dual functions of monetary policy tools in terms of total volume and structure, maintain reasonable and abundant liquidity, keep the growth rate of money supply and social financing basically match the nominal economic growth rate, support financing in key areas and weak links, and promote effective quality improvement and reasonable economic growth.
The second point: How much money will be released?
How much money will be released this time? The relevant person in charge said that a total of about 500 billion yuan of long-term funds were released. This RRR cutting is a comprehensive RRR cutting. Except for some corporate financial institutions that implement the 5% deposit reserve ratio, the deposit reserve ratio of other financial institutions is generally lowered by 0.25 percentage points.
The third point: What effect can it have?
Institutional sources and industry experts have analyzed that the RRR cut can have a positive impact in many aspects, maintain a reasonable and sufficient liquidity, promote credit expansion, guide the reduction of financing costs in the real economy, and consolidate the foundation of economic stability.
First, maintain a reasonable and sufficient liquidity.
According to statistics, from February 2022 to October 2023 10, a total of10.2 trillion yuan of MLF (medium-term loan facility) expired, and the amount was large and concentrated. In addition, the Spring Festival in 2023 is in 65438+ 10, which is ahead of previous years. Near the end of the year, time-related factors such as regulatory assessment, Spring Festival holiday and peak tax payment at the beginning of next year may be superimposed, which increases the risk of liquidity fluctuation at the end of the year and the beginning of the year. The RRR cut will release a large amount of long-term liquidity at one time, which will help to increase the total liquidity, fully meet the demand of financial institutions for long-term funds, and stabilize market expectations.
In fact, in February, 200211,the People's Bank of China used reserve instruments to hedge the liquidity fluctuation caused by the expiration of MLF and other factors, and made an overall plan for the macro-policy convergence in 20021and 2022.
The second is to support commercial banks to expand credit supply.
The financial data of June 5438+ 10 shows that the effective financing demand of society still needs to be boosted, and the monetary and credit policies still need to be further strengthened. RRR interest rate cuts will release a large number of long-term funds, which can increase the long-term stable sources of funds for financial institutions, enhance their ability to allocate funds, and increase credit and financing support for the real economy.
At the beginning of each year, many commercial banks will scramble to make a good start for "credit supply" in order to realize early investment and early income. At this time, the reduction of RRR can provide sufficient financial support for commercial banks and maintain the steady growth of total credit.
Third, it helps to reduce the financing cost of the real economy.
At present, reducing the financing cost of the real economy is still one of the important focuses of the steady growth of monetary and credit policies. RRR interest rate cuts have released long-term low-cost funds, which can push banks to reduce loan interest rates by increasing the available funds of financial institutions, improving the relationship between supply and demand of funds and reducing the cost of bank funds.
The newly released LPR in June 65438+ October 065438+ has not changed. From the point of view of commercial banks, in the face of the pressure of narrowing the net interest margin, the measures to continue to reduce the LPR quotation will more effectively reduce the debt cost. Industry experts said that by reducing RRR to a certain extent, the cost of the bank's debt side can also be reduced, thus guiding LPR to continue to decline.
The fourth is to escort the early issuance and early use of local bonds.
Recently, some local financial departments disclosed that the Ministry of Finance has issued some new government debt limits in 2023 in advance. By reducing RRR and releasing a large amount of liquidity, maintaining a reasonable and abundant liquidity will help the smooth and orderly issuance of local bonds, and then stimulate the investment of government bond funds.
Comprehensive analysis shows that the RRR cut is both necessary and reasonable, and the timing is also very suitable, which is conducive to achieving the policy effect of "killing many birds with one stone".
The fourth point: What is the impact on the market?
RRR interest rate cuts have released a large amount of liquidity at one time, which has an inclusive impact on large-scale assets such as stocks and bonds.
For the stock market:
Under normal circumstances, from the perspective of valuation, profit and risk preference, reducing RRR is beneficial to risky assets such as stocks.
"RRR's interest rate cut shows that the countercyclical policy continues to exert its strength, which will help the market to form the expectation of continuously promoting wide credit and boost market confidence." Gao Ruidong, chief macro economist of Everbright Securities, said.
Market participants said that the RRR cut brought liquidity to the stock market and confidence to investors. At the same time, maintaining a certain liquidity is conducive to the stability of the capital market.
Historically, real estate, finance and other industries sensitive to monetary policy and liquidity are the main beneficiaries.
China securities journal combed the trend of A shares the day after the People's Bank of China announced the RRR cut.
For the bond market:
Analysts believe that under the current situation, the impact of RRR interest rate cuts on short-term and medium-and long-term bond market trends should be treated differently.
In the short term, RRR will release a lot of low-cost liquidity and increase the supply of funds in the financial market, which will push down the market interest rate, and correspondingly, it is expected to drive down the bond market interest rate and raise the price; In the medium and long term, the fundamental purpose of reducing RRR is to expand credit and stabilize the economy. With the expansion of credit and the stabilization of the economy, the bond market interest rate, which is already at a low level, may gradually usher in the process of bottoming out and rising.
For the real estate market:
RRR interest rate cuts can stabilize the real estate market to some extent.
Yan Yuejin, research director of the think tank center of Yiju Research Institute, said that RRR interest rate cuts will have an impact on mortgage loans, house prices and market expectations, improve market pessimism, help boost purchasing power, and form a good supporting role for subsequent real estate market transactions, thus promoting market transactions.