Renminbi is a credit currency, which is issued with national credit as a guarantee, but this credit is not a virtual term, but is issued with real wealth as a mortgage.
The issuance of RMB is mainly through the banking system, including the central bank and commercial banks at all levels. This process is completed through debt. The government, enterprises and residents can mortgage loans to banks through their own assets, including government bonds, fixed assets of enterprises, shares, intellectual property rights, other assets, residential real estate and other assets. These assets are real wealth. The mortgage value is calculated through strict examination by the bank, and the RMB is released.
It is particularly stated here that government bonds, that is, national debt, are also mortgaged by actual wealth, that is, the government's tax collection rights and other assets.
For example, if a resident has two properties, and the resident is going to invest in a hotel, and the funds are not enough, he will take one of them to the bank for mortgage loan, and the bank will approve the loan of 2 million yuan, which is the new currency issue. The mortgage behind it is the residents' property, and the property is the anchor.
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The first thing to know is what money is and what an anchor is.
As we all know, paper money is issued by credit. However, if you want to exchange trade with China, you must let the other party know clearly what your currency can buy, how much you can buy and how to measure its value. Otherwise, paper money will lose the basis of circulation and exchange, because unmeasured paper money cannot be used.
This paper money is linked to it, which can provide him with a basis for measurement, so it can be called the anchor of money.
The anchors of money in the world are very diverse. For example, in some countries, oil is the anchor. When oil rises sharply, the currency will appreciate, and there will be a basis for mass issuance, and vice versa. And some countries, with strong national strength and mainly credit, can issue on credit according to the situation of the world economy.
Summary: The issuance of paper money must have a measurable basis, and this basis is the anchor.
In fact, the simplest analysis explores the possible anchors of the RMB:
The first stage, the founding system before the reform and opening up. It could be gold. At that time, the national economy was limited, with gold as the anchor. Its advantage is that the currency is very strong and maintains its value, and its credit is very high. In the words of ordinary people, the money earned is naturally preserved and deposited in the bank to increase its value, because the anchored gold does not depreciate. There are also shortcomings, and it is impossible to increase the scale of paper money on a large scale. Because gold is very rare, it is difficult to process and mine.
The second stage, from the beginning of reform and opening up to the 1980s and 1990s. The anchor of the RMB in recent days is probably the US dollar. We buy a lot of dollars in the United States to buy American debt, which is equivalent to opening a letter of credit for RMB. The size of the dollar is very large. If it is, we can also send it. By issuing the money supply market, it has laid a good foundation for rapid economic growth, and the scale of RMB has expanded rapidly. The advantage of anchoring the dollar is that the credit is guaranteed, but the disadvantage is that it needs to be adjusted with the dollar and its scale is limited.
The third stage, now, may be anchored land. Although it is good to anchor the US dollar, it is predicted that China's GDP may reach the level of the United States in 2030, which is many times that of Japan (of course, there are many unknowns in the prediction). If the dollar is anchored in this situation, it will not meet the needs of development. So it is possible to anchor the land. There are unique conditions in this respect, and the land belongs to the state. Under certain circumstances, he can raise the price substantially, which creates a foundation for the continued large-scale printing and distribution. Suppose, an acre of land, corresponding to the issuance of 1000 yuan, when an acre of land rises to 1000 yuan, theoretically, it can only increase the currency circulation by 10 times. What will happen to the anchored land? I believe it will be clear when I look back later.
Summary: the anchor of money is not fixed, but changing, and it may be land at present.
Finally, summarize and analyze:
Roughly speaking, the RMB may be anchored by land.
Note: This analysis may be superficial, but it may also be insufficient. Even the possibility and fallacy are not ruled out, and they are all discussed after dinner.
If it is a transaction without money, then the transaction can only stay in the primary stage of barter exchange, and the transaction cost is high. Therefore, the invention of money makes all transactions convenient, simple and easy.
For a long time, gold has been the pillar of money. Since money is a kind of credit, it needs a stable reference as a "credit guarantee". In human history, the reference of money was gold, and it was also the anchor of money at that time.
Why has gold been used as the currency anchor for a long time in history? This is because gold is scarce, and the state has no way to issue additional shares; Gold is chemically inactive and difficult to react with other elements, so it can be preserved and preserved for a long time. Convenient for processing and commodity exchange. After World War II, the United States became a well-deserved hegemon in the world at that time. The Bretton Woods system is a monetary system that confirms that all countries take the US dollar as the anchor, and the US dollar becomes the means of international settlement and payment and the main reserve currency of all countries.
After 1978, China implemented the policy of reform and opening up. In the past 30 years, China has been the biggest beneficiary of this monetary system. 200 1 China joined the WTO, catching the express train of global economic growth and benefiting from economic globalization. Like Germany and Japan half a century ago, they gradually accumulated US dollar reserves, and China even stored these reserves in the form of US Treasury bonds. The issuance of RMB is based on anchoring the US dollar, and the expansion of US dollar credit gives the monetary authorities in China the conditions and basis for the expansion of RMB credit. From the perspective of economic scale, it is a high probability event that China will surpass the United States in 15 in the future, and there are certain conditions for changing the anchor.
Changing the anchor of RMB is an inevitable result. In the future, the RMB may strengthen the land anchor. We believe that with the further deepening of economic reform and the increasing scale of economic growth in China, the land anchor will be further strengthened after the RMB gradually weakens the dollar anchor. At present, the implementation of the "One Belt, One Road" strategy in China is also aimed at promoting the internationalization of RMB through the establishment of AIIB. In addition, recently, RMB joined SDR as one of the international reserve currencies. All these measures are aimed at enhancing the international status of RMB and weakening the anchor position of the US dollar.
At present, the anchor of RMB is real estate and China commodities, and the future is national debt. Currency is the universal equivalent of commodities, and the currency of a country is the universal equivalent of national credit endorsement. Historically, all countries' currencies were endorsed and issued with gold as an anchor. The dollar goes to the world, and it is also based on gold as the anchor of currency issuance. With the expansion of dollar circulation, the amount of gold in the United States could not keep up, so it was announced that the dollar was decoupled from gold. The clever Kissinger found that oil was the anchor of the dollar, which made the dollar expand unprecedentedly. The dollar has become the anchor of the national currency and the reserve currency of the central bank. The anchor of RMB has also changed gradually with the changes of the times, and there is no very clear anchor until now. The total amount of RMB issued is very large, and gold alone is obviously not enough. After the reform and opening up, export-oriented and encouraged foreign exchange earning, foreign exchange countries unified acquisition and exchange of RMB, and foreign exchange reserves became the anchor for issuing RMB, and 3 trillion US dollars was nearly 20 trillion RMB. Up to now, the total GDP is1000 trillion, and the proportion of total import and export trade is gradually decreasing, and the total currency is 200 trillion. Foreign exchange alone can no longer meet the needs of China's economic development. Especially in the trade friction between China and the United States in the past three years, the resilience of China's economy has been fully demonstrated. In the past 1 year, the RMB has appreciated by 7000 basis points against the US dollar. Behind this, the renminbi is so strong. What anchor makes the moat of RMB so deep and protected so well? The answer is yes, the market value of 400 trillion real estate has become the deepest moat. At the same time, the goods made in China and China are at home. Because of their low prices and good quality, inflation has been kept within a reasonable range. Under the international background, especially in COVID-19, the RMB has greatly appreciated, and China's goods are still very competitive, with double-digit growth in exports. Therefore, goods made in China and China together with real estate constitute the anchor of RMB. 15 By 2035, China will become the largest economy in the world, the internationalization of RMB will be greatly improved, and its comprehensive national strength will be enhanced. China, like other countries in the world, will gradually use national debt as the anchor of RMB, while central banks will use RMB as the anchor of national currencies, and China will share the dividend of RMB internationalization!
At present, the RMB is debt-anchored. Debt is the anchor of RMB, and we have been following a path of sustained inflation over the years, eliminating debt with greater debt.
The value of RMB is not the foreign reserves of US dollars or gold resources, but the creativity and development prospects of the Chinese nation, which is the real industrial capacity of China. Renminbi can buy all the resources, products and services you need in China. Therefore, the anchor of RMB is the future and destiny of the Chinese nation. The anchor of RMB is the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation.
Whether the anchor of RMB is land and real estate, or dollars, gold and others, I suggest that the anchor of RMB is domestic or local GDP (physical assets).
Because: First, China is the world's largest producer of industry and commodities, and also the world's largest exporter of trade; Second, China is also the second largest economy in the world, and it is certain that its GDP will surpass that of the United States in the next decade at the latest; 3. If the RMB anchors the GDP of countries and regions, China's economic and GDP growth will not be affected by international capital and the US dollar or exchange rate, and will not be divorced from reality, which is conducive to the sustainable growth of China's economy and GDP; 4. RMB anchors GDP, or increases moderate liquidity on the basis of local GDP, such as liquidity and leverage. Then, the state can give the whole people the "free consumption right of per capita GDP", so as to ensure that all those who participate in the social division of labor, workers and service providers, can get the "free consumption right of per capita GDP to guarantee wages" equivalent to their per capita GDP on the basis of the per capita GDP in the previous year, thus realizing the "national synchronization" of the whole people or service providers in the social division of labor under the current national conditions. 5. If RMB really anchors the national GDP, the internationalization of RMB and the status of international reserve currency will be accelerated and consolidated. Because China is the largest exporter in the world, countries all over the world are naturally willing to regard RMB as the most valuable and trustworthy international currency, thus accelerating the decline of dollar hegemony!
In short, only when the anchor of RMB is GDP, people don't have to worry about the bubble and economic crisis or financial crisis in the national economy, not to mention the fact that the national economy is divorced from reality. Of course, in the context of economic globalization and hegemony, there is no need to worry about the impact of the US dollar and the international exchange rate on China's economy. Because, as long as the RMB anchors the national GDP, China will be transformed into a consumption-oriented country and society with domestic demand at any time.
Therefore, it is time to emancipate the mind, innovate, change and reform, and keep pace with the times in practice. At least, you shouldn't rest on your laurels!
The anchor of RMB is the people's yearning for a better life and their fighting spirit.
What is the anchor of RMB?
It's America's foreign debt.
The foreign debts purchased by Japan and other countries in the United States are different from those of China.
Some people say that the United States has so much foreign debt that China buys the most from the United States. What if it doesn't return it?
China is hope he heels don't also. As long as you don't return, China will laugh.
Why? Think about it, you know.
China's manufacturing processing capacity and high-tech commanding heights,
Let's talk about why the United States has become an international currency. Because you have dollars in your hand, you can buy high-tech weapons, high-value products and technologies.
Because the United States is the main trading country of most countries, there is a great demand for dollars in the world, because most countries need to do business with the United States, and it can also be understood that the anchor is the core trading partner.
Third world countries have a great demand for technology from developed countries, so many countries desperately use agricultural products, exchange resources for dollars, and then exchange dollars for technology in order to obtain technology from developing countries.
An important sign that your currency can become an international currency is that you have occupied the commanding heights of world science and technology.
Secondly, your manufacturing industry has a very high processing level and can export products and technologies that are not available in other countries.
Since World War II, the United States has issued US dollars to the world by binding gold as an anchor. Later, there was not enough gold and oil broke down. Under normal circumstances, the anchor of a currency has changed and its credit should collapse. In fact, the dollar has not collapsed or depreciated sharply. Even in the future, international oil trade will not be settled in dollars, and the dollar will not collapse, as long as the United States remains the most militarily powerful country and the most powerful economy in the world. The dollar will certainly not collapse.
Once the United States becomes a second-rate country and falls behind China, it will become very dangerous and the dollar will not be so strong. It is impossible to support economic development by issuing US debt.
It is impossible to change money into things by printing money.
At present, China can be regarded as a manufacturing power after the United States. Although there is still a gap between high-end technology and the United States, high-end technology is basically invincible. Yes, you can buy most products and services through RMB.
We in China follow the old road of the United States reaching the top of the world, first developing the manufacturing industry into the first place in the world, and then occupying the commanding heights of technology step by step.
In some high-tech fields, there is still a gap of five to ten years between China and the United States. Several regions have surpassed the United States. In the absence of war, it is only a matter of time before we completely surpass the United States.
As long as the field of science and technology surpasses the United States in an all-round way, it will be natural for RMB to become an international currency.