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At present, the financial turmoil originated from the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States has intensified and started to spread rapidly to the real economy. The shadow of the economic crisis hangs over major economies, and the decline of global economic growth is a foregone conclusion.

According to the forecast of the International Monetary Fund, the global economic growth rate will drop sharply from 5.0% in 2007 to 3.9% in 2008, and continue to drop to 3.0% in 2009, among which the economic growth rate of western developed countries such as the United States, Britain, Germany and France will be close to zero or negative in 2009.

Judging from the major developed economies such as the United States, Japan and the European Union, the signs of economic recession are particularly obvious. According to preliminary data released by the U.S. Department of Commerce, the U.S. gross domestic product decreased by 0.3% at an annual rate in the third quarter, and the U.S. economy grew by 0.9% and 2.8% at an annual rate in the first two quarters of this year, which indicates that the U.S. economy is on the verge of recession. In September, the US manufacturing activity index was only 43.5, the lowest since 200 1 and 10. According to the data released by the US Department of Labor 10 10, the unemployment rate in September was 6. 1%, which was the same as last month and the highest level since September 2003. 6543810-September, the number of employed people in the United States decreased by 760,000, and the increase in unemployment directly led to the contraction of consumer spending and the decrease in imports. With the spread of the financial turmoil in the United States, the economic growth of other economies in the world has also begun to slow down significantly. France, Germany, Britain, Thailand, South Korea, Japan and other countries have lowered their GDP growth expectations. The initial GDP of euro zone 15 countries in the second quarter increased by 1.5% year-on-year, and decreased by 0.2% month-on-month, showing the first negative growth since 1995 was recorded. Japan's GDP in the second quarter decreased by 0.6% month-on-month and 2.4% year-on-year, which was the first contraction in a year. Due to the sharp increase in imports and weak export growth, Japan experienced its first monthly trade deficit in 26 years in August. Traditional net exporters such as Japan have deficits, which shows that the economic slowdown in the United States has a great impact on global economic and trade growth.

Entrepreneurs and consumers are also very pessimistic about the economic prospects. According to GFK's survey, the German consumer confidence index in September was only 1.5, far below market expectations. This is the fourth consecutive month of decline this year, the lowest level since June 2003. The economic confidence index of the euro zone in September dropped from 88.5 last month to 87.7, the lowest level since the end of 200/kloc-0. Japan's household consumer confidence index in September was 3 1.2, the lowest since 1.982.

At the same time, the economic growth rate of emerging market economies such as India, Brazil and ASEAN, which have made outstanding foreign trade performance in China this year, has also dropped from a high level. According to the IMF's World Economic Outlook, the economic growth of emerging market economies and developing economies will continue to slow down, and the annual growth rate will drop from 8% in 2007 to 6.9%, and further slow down to 6. 1% in 2009, and the inflationary pressure will increase obviously. Vietnam's economy is in chaos. Vietnam's stock market fell by 60%, the property market fell by half, the Vietnamese dong depreciated by 30% against the US dollar, and the inflation rate reached 28.3% in August, the highest level since 17. In July, Thailand's inflation rate also reached 9.2%, hitting a new high of 10. Latin America reached 8.9%, Singapore and Russia were 6.45% and 14.7% respectively. South Korea's PPI increased by 12.5% year-on-year in July, hitting a new high since 1998. India, the Philippines and other countries also have similar problems, with high inflation and a substantial increase in some trade deficits.

China's economy is inevitably affected, and its economic growth rate slows down. According to the Autumn Report 2008 issued by China Academy of Social Sciences, the GDP growth rate of China in 2008 was about 10. 1%, which was 1.8 percentage points lower than last year. From June to September, China's total import and export volume increased by 25.2%, of which exports increased by 22.3%, which was 4.8 percentage points lower than the same period last year. From the perspective of Zhejiang Province, the downward trend of economic growth is also obvious. In the first quarter, Zhejiang's GDP increased by 1 1.8% compared with the same period of last year, and fell back to 1 1.4% in the first half of the year, and increased by 1.6% in the third quarter compared with the same period of last year, down by 4. 1 percentage point.

Foreign economy, especially foreign trade, has always been one of the main driving forces for Zhejiang's economic growth. In 2007, Zhejiang's foreign trade dependence (the ratio of total import and export value to Zhejiang's GDP) and export dependence (the ratio of total export value to Zhejiang's GDP) reached 7 1.6% and 5 1.9% respectively, which were 69.5 and 49.9 percentage points higher than 1.980 respectively. Especially since joining the WTO in 200 1, Zhejiang's foreign trade has grown rapidly for six consecutive years, with an average annual growth rate of 32.4%, which is 5.4 percentage points higher than the national average growth rate in the same period, of which exports have increased by 33.2%, which is 5.2 percentage points higher than the national average. It is more than 10 percentage points higher than the average annual growth rate of 210 in the previous 20 years. This rapid growth benefits from the historical high growth rate of the world economy and the relatively relaxed domestic policy environment. At present, the world economy is declining or even declining, and the superposition effect of domestic macro-control policies and the frequent changes of "three rates and two prices" (tax rebate rate, exchange rate, interest rate, raw material price and labor price) have great influence on Zhejiang's foreign economic development.

Changes in the international situation have had a certain impact on all aspects of Zhejiang's foreign economy:

1. The growth rate of exports dropped significantly. From June 5438 to September, the total export volume of Zhejiang Province was1178.9 billion US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 24.3%. The growth rate is 2 percentage points higher than that of the whole country, but it is 4.9 percentage points lower than that of the same period of last year and 0.8 percentage points lower than that of/kloc-0 in June-June. If the appreciation of the US dollar is deducted, the total export value in RMB from June 5438 to September only increased by 13.3%, down by 10.4 percentage points compared with the same period of the previous year, and the decline was 2.2 percentage points higher than that in the first half of the year.

The decline in export growth has also had a great impact on the production and sales of industrial enterprises in Zhejiang Province. From June 5438 to September, the sales output value of export delivery value, an industrial enterprise above designated size in Zhejiang Province, dropped by 3.2 percentage points, 2.4 percentage points lower than the same period of last year, which affected the sales output value to drop by nearly 40%. Some industries with high export dependence, such as clothing, leather, furniture, communication equipment, etc. Under the influence of export slowdown, production dropped sharply, and the growth rate of added value dropped by 4.5 and 4. 1 respectively compared with the same period of last year.

2. Weak utilization of foreign capital. 10-September, 65,438 foreign direct investment enterprises were newly established in Zhejiang province, with contracted foreign investment of109.8 billion US dollars, down by 40.6% and 16.6% respectively. The growth rate of actual utilization of foreign capital shows a downward trend month by month. From June to September, the actually utilized foreign capital in Zhejiang Province was US$ 7.93 billion, up by 1 1.4% year-on-year, and the growth rate dropped by 10.6 percentage points compared with the same period of last year, and dropped by 3 percentage points compared with the first half of the year. In particular, the investment of developed economies such as the United States and the European Union in Zhejiang Province has fallen sharply. On the basis of a steep dive in 2007, the utilization of US capital continued to decline (in 2007, the contracted and actually utilized US capital in Zhejiang Province decreased by 53.6% and 23.6% respectively, while the contracted and actually utilized foreign capital in Zhejiang Province increased by 6.8% and 16.6% respectively), and the actually utilized US capital from June to September in 438 was US$ 330 million.

3. Due to the high dependence on the markets of the United States and the European Union, compared with other domestic provinces and cities, the economic recession of the United States and the European Union and the contraction of import demand have a greater impact on Zhejiang's exports. In 2007, the export concentration of Zhejiang Province to the United States and the European Union reached 45.8%, which was 6.6 percentage points higher than that of the whole country. From 2000 to 2007, the average proportion of Zhejiang's exports to the United States reached 20%, an increase of 4.7 percentage points over the previous 20 years. In 2007, Zhejiang's total exports to the United States accounted for 10% of Zhejiang's GDP, which was 2.9 percentage points higher than that of the whole country. The dependence on EU exports is as high as 13.8%, which is 5.3 percentage points higher than that of the whole country. From June 5438 to September, Zhejiang's exports to the European Union were US$ 32.62 billion and US$ 20 1 billion, respectively, which remained the first and second largest export markets in Zhejiang Province, increasing by 28.5% and 8.9% year-on-year, respectively, and the growth rates dropped by 8.2 and 6.2 percentage points, respectively, which were three times higher than the national level and 1.6 percentage points respectively. Among them, exports to the United States have been running at a low level since the second half of last year, with single-digit growth in most months and even negative growth in some months. In fact, if the appreciation of the US dollar is deducted, the RMB-denominated exports to the United States have experienced negative growth from June 5438 to September. According to estimates, due to the weak US market in the first three quarters, Zhejiang's exports increased by nearly 4 percentage points. Since the beginning of this year, the export to Japan, another major market in Zhejiang Province, has continued its weak growth trend, with the growth rates of 9.2% and 7.7% in 2006 and 2007 respectively, and the export has rebounded slightly this year. From June to September, Zhejiang's exports to Japan increased by 13.5%, an increase of 7.2 percentage points over the same period last year.

4. The export growth rate of all kinds of commodities has declined to varying degrees, especially traditional bulk export commodities. From June 5438 to September, the export of mechanical and electrical products, clothing and clothing accessories, furniture and its parts, footwear, lamps and lighting devices, travel goods and luggage increased by 26.8%, 15.3%, 27.6%, 10.5% and 15.6% respectively. As the export markets of Motorola (mainly producing telephones) and Toshiba (mainly producing notebook computers) are still depressed, the export of telephone and automatic data processing equipment and components in Zhejiang Province has declined again. The decline of telephone export increased from 19.5% in the same period of last year to 5 1.8%, and the export of automatic data processing equipment and parts decreased from 5. 1% in the same period of last year to 65438.

Many enterprises have reduced their export scale or even suspended their export. Since the beginning of this year, many private export enterprises have faced unprecedented operational difficulties due to the weakening of international market demand, the appreciation of RMB exchange rate, the tight supply of factors and the increase of costs. From the data point of view, the export growth rate of private enterprises has shown a downward trend since the second half of last year, and the exports of those enterprises with competitive prices, low technology content and single market have dropped significantly or even declined. From June 5438 to September, among more than 2 1000 private enterprises in Zhejiang Province (accounting for 70% of all export enterprises), about half of the enterprises' exports decreased year-on-year, and nearly 1900 private enterprises stopped their own export business.

6. Enterprises are pessimistic about export prospects. According to the questionnaire survey of 69 key export-related enterprises, only 22.4% enterprises think that exports will increase in the next quarter, and 32.8% enterprises think that exports will decrease. The export boom index was 89.6, down 10.4 points from the first quarter. Among them, the prosperity indexes of major export markets such as the United States, the European Union, Japan, Hong Kong and ASEAN are all in the recession range, and only the export prosperity indexes of Russia and India are above the critical point of prosperity.

7. The growth rate of the tourism market has slowed down. Tourism, known as "sunrise industry", is extremely sensitive to changes in economic fluctuations. From June 5438 to September, Zhejiang received 4010.4 million inbound tourists, up 7.2% year-on-year. The foreign exchange income from tourism was USD 229,000, up by 13.9% year-on-year, and the growth rate dropped by 12.9 and 8.7 percentage points respectively. 10-September, 65,438,199,000 American tourists came to Zhejiang Province, and the growth rate dropped sharply from 25.2% in the same period last year to 1.2%, among which 75,000 American tourists were received in the third quarter, down 4.4% year-on-year.

Positive changes in the current foreign economic operation

Since the second half of the year, the state's macro-control has shifted from "double prevention" to "one insurance and one prevention". Recently, the state has introduced policies such as lowering the benchmark interest rate of RMB deposits and loans, the RMB deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions, and temporarily exempting the interest income tax on savings deposits, which shows that the tight macro-control policies have been moderately relaxed, the CPI index has fallen, and the RMB exchange rate has been relatively stable. Compared with the same period of last year, the RMB not only failed to beat the euro and the yen within 1-9 months. Internationally, a large-scale government rescue plan is being vigorously launched. Although the effect needs further verification, it shows the determination and strength of the governments of major economies to curb the deepening of the crisis. Zhejiang's foreign economy, especially foreign trade, has also undergone some positive changes:

From June 5438 to September, exports rebounded slightly, increasing by 24. 1% in that month, 4. 1 percentage point higher than that in the previous month and 3.7 percentage points higher than that in July, which was the highest monthly increase of exports since the second half of the year. Among them, the export to the United States in September was 2.58 billion US dollars, which was the best level of export to the United States in a single month in history, with a monthly increase of 19.3%, and also the best performance of 1 month since the second half of this year.

2. Export enterprises have the trend that the stronger the strong, the weaker the weak, the survival of the fittest. From June 5438 to September, the export of private enterprises in Zhejiang Province was US$ 60.49 billion, accounting for 5 1.3% of Zhejiang's export, up 32.5% year-on-year, which was higher than the average growth rate of Zhejiang Province by 8.2 percentage points, and also faster than the export growth rate of foreign-invested enterprises and state-owned enterprises by 12.5 and 24.4 percentage points. Although about half of the enterprises with competitive prices, low technology content and single market showed obvious decline or even negative growth, the exports of enterprises with high technology content and strong market development ability increased significantly. Many enterprises actively explore the international market, seek benefits from technology and management, and still maintain rapid growth. In the first three quarters, about one-third of private enterprises' exports increased by more than 50% year-on-year, which greatly boosted the export growth of Zhejiang Province. The stronger the export enterprises are, the more obvious the trend of survival of the fittest will be.

3. The export product structure tends to be optimized. From June 5438 to September, the export proportion of mechanical and electrical products in Zhejiang Province reached 43.9%, an increase of 0.9 percentage points over the same period last year. Products encouraged by countries such as pharmaceuticals grew at a high speed, with an increase of 77.6% from June to September, up by 565,438 0.9 percentage points year-on-year; The export of agricultural products rebounded sharply, with an increase of 19. 1% from June to September, an increase of 10.3 percentage points over the same period last year; The growth rate of "high energy consumption, high pollution and high resources" products such as steel and plastics and labor-intensive products restricted by the state has dropped sharply or even decreased negatively. From June to September, the growth rate of steel exports dropped from 148.8% in the same period last year to 22.9%, and the export of plastic products changed from 2.8% to 1.5. The export of high-tech products is mainly reflected in the processing trade of several large foreign-invested enterprises. Due to the rapid rise of Ningbo Chimei Electronics Co., Ltd. (a large-scale processing and trading enterprise mainly producing liquid crystal displays), the company's exports increased by 765,438 0.5% from June to September, which largely compensated for the decline in exports of Motorola and Toshiba, and also made the export growth of high-tech products in Zhejiang Province slightly increase from 3.2% to. Clothing and textiles, which also benefited from the increase of export tax rebate rate twice since August this year, have seen different situations. Due to the rapid development of textile and garment industry in neighboring countries such as Viet Nam, the demand for textile raw materials and semi-finished products in China has increased. At the same time, due to the strong competitiveness of textile printing and dyeing in Zhejiang textile industry, the export growth rate of textile yarn and its products has accelerated, while the export growth rate of clothing, which is more sensitive to the rise of labor costs and raw material costs and more competitive from other countries, has dropped significantly. From June to September, the export of textile yarns, fabrics and their products in Zhejiang Province increased by 27.9%, 4.8 percentage points higher than the same period of last year, and the export of clothing increased by 15.3%, 2.6 percentage points higher than the same period of last year. In the same period, the export growth rate of China's textile yarn and clothing was 2 1.3% and 1.65 and 438+0% respectively, and the export growth rate of clothing dropped by 2 1.9 percentage points.

4. Active trade with emerging markets. From June 5438 to September, Zhejiang's exports to emerging markets such as ASEAN, Latin America, Africa, the Middle East and the Commonwealth of Independent States continued to grow rapidly, increasing by 34%, 50.4%, 28. 1%, 25.8% and 4 1. 1% respectively, all higher than the average level of Zhejiang Province. At present, the export proportion of Zhejiang Province to the above five emerging markets has reached 33. 1%.

5. Import growth accelerated. From June to September, Zhejiang imported US$ 45.85 billion, up by 29.4%, up by 2.5 percentage points over the same period of last year, and 5. 1 percentage point higher than the export in the same period. In the second half of the year, as the prices of bulk raw materials in the international market fell, Zhejiang enterprises took the opportunity to actively expand imports, and the imports of raw materials such as refined oil, metal mines, chemical raw materials, soybeans, edible oil, natural rubber, cotton and pulp all maintained rapid growth.

Outlook for the whole year and next year

In the fourth quarter of this year and next year, the international economic situation will be more severe. Economic slowdown and shrinking consumer demand will directly lead to the reduction of global trade volume, and China, as the third largest import and export country in the world, will certainly be affected. At the same time, the task of maintaining stable economic growth and controlling inflation in China is very arduous. Enterprises are facing the pressure of rising overall costs such as land, energy, raw materials, transportation, environmental protection and labor, which will increase the uncertainty and instability of foreign economies, and the situation is not optimistic. In this situation, we should make a comprehensive analysis, seek advantages and avoid disadvantages, turn pressure into motivation, and maintain the steady growth of foreign economy, especially foreign trade.

1. The supply and demand environment has not changed substantially. China's major export industries still have a strong competitive advantage in the world because of their high concentration, strong supporting capacity and industrial chain formation, which cannot be easily replaced. And from the perspective of supply and demand environment, there is no substantial change. On the one hand, there are differences in supply and huge supply. Last year, China's total export volume was121800 million US dollars, ranking third in the world, and its products were mainly middle and low-grade consumer goods. Compared with the United States and Germany, which rank first and second, the product structure is complementary to some extent. Compared with other countries whose exports are competitive, few countries can really pose challenges. Take India, Vietnam and other countries as examples. Although the development momentum is also very rapid in recent years, the total export of Vietnam in 2007 was US$ 48.4 billion, less than 40% of that of Zhejiang. Nearly half of them are agricultural, forestry, aquatic products and mineral products, and the processed industrial products are only more than 20 billion US dollars. India's export in 2007 was $654.38+05.5 billion, of which agriculture, forestry, aquatic products and mineral products also accounted for half of its total export. Moreover, last year, the appreciation of Indian Rupee against the US dollar reached 1 1.8%, which was much higher than the appreciation of RMB, greatly damaging its export competitiveness. Vietnam is currently in an economic crisis. On the other hand, from the demand point of view, China's export products are cheap and good quality, many of which are necessities of life, and the price elasticity is not great. Due to the financial crisis, the income level of consumers in Europe and America has declined, and the original high-end consumer groups have shifted to low-end consumer groups, which may increase the demand for China products.

2. The grim situation may become the driving force for the transformation and upgrading of export enterprises. Although China's export enterprises are facing difficulties now, in the medium and long term, these difficulties are only a driving force to promote the upgrading of China's export enterprises and accelerate the transformation of foreign trade growth mode. After the shuffling process of survival of the fittest, export enterprises will push enterprises and commodities to change the image of simply winning at low prices in the past, and rely more on scientific and technological progress, R&D design, energy conservation and emission reduction, brand quality and comprehensive services to occupy the market, create better economic benefits, and their competitiveness will be greatly improved. Take the textile industry as an example. Compared with the garment industry with strong labor-intensive characteristics, the capital and technology intensity of weaving, dyeing and other production links in the textile industry are higher. It is precisely because of the upgrading of the textile industry in Zhejiang Province that the competitiveness of the textile industry in Zhejiang Province has been greatly enhanced, which has led to the sustained and rapid growth of textile production and export in recent years. According to some data, Zhejiang textile industry has continuously accelerated the pace of updating its technical equipment by vigorously introducing advanced equipment. From 1993 to 2002, the average annual growth rate of imported textile machinery and parts in Zhejiang Province was 27.5%, much higher than the growth rate of total imports of 20. 1% in the same period. At the same time, the popularization and application of advanced technology has been accelerated, and various economic and technical indicators rank among the top in the country. The self-sufficiency rate of clothing fabrics has also improved, and the trend of technical upgrading is obvious.

3. In order to maintain growth and prevent inflation, the state may introduce some active and effective policies and measures. As one of the troika driving economic growth, foreign trade will benefit a lot, the cumulative effect of foreign trade policy adjustment will be further revealed, and the export growth mode will tend to be optimized. In fact, from the central government to local governments, many measures have been introduced to promote exports. Zhejiang Province is trying to distribute "rescue funds" in various forms, such as government-enterprise cooperation and enterprise mutual assistance, to help small enterprises tide over financial difficulties. This is an innovation supported by the government to capitalize funds, which is intended to help private enterprises on the verge of crisis to resolve the risk of capital chain break in time. In addition, from 1 65438+1October1,the state will increase the export tax rebate rate for some commodities, including textiles and clothing, plastic (6275,295.00, 4.93%, bar) products, furniture and other commodities with strong export capacity in Zhejiang Province, and the export enthusiasm of enterprises will be improved.

It is estimated that the export growth rate will be around 24% in the fourth quarter and the whole year of this year, but it may be lower than 20% in the first half of 2009. In 2009, exports will show a "steady decline" trend, and the export growth mode will be further optimized. The utilization of foreign capital in Zhejiang has maintained a steady and rapid growth trend for nearly 10 years, and an "inflection point" will begin to appear this year. Therefore, it is expected that the actual utilization of foreign capital in Zhejiang Province will remain at a low level next year and for some time to come.