Bank financing is no longer safe!

Under the cold wave, how should you get away with it?

1

Frequent bursts, thunder rolling!

Recently, I read several news about breach of contract, which caused Xiaohui to think deeply.

Jia Yueting left the mess behind and went to the United States. The money he promised has not been fulfilled. Recently, he issued a statement: Brother, I really can't afford it.

This can be a bitter experience for a group of creditors, especially Sun Hongbin, the white knight, who just gritted his teeth and borrowed 65.438+08 billion yuan to save LeTV!

Speaking of debt default, it rarely happened in previous years, but in the past two years, the boss of Northeast Special Steel jumped off a building, Huishan Dairy plummeted, and dandong port defaulted.

Don't think that this has nothing to do with Wang, because it is mainly the local tyrants who have contributed a lot to dandong port:

Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, Agricultural Bank, China Construction Bank, China Bank, Bank of Communications, Minsheng Bank and Ping An Bank. ...

And the bank's money is the deposit of ordinary people. Once the breach of contract is implemented, ZF shouts: Leave you alone and play by yourself. Starting from state-owned enterprises, rigid redemption has been broken, which may mean the arrival of the era of default!

Previously, cash loans were listed together, why did it cause so many people's pain?

In addition to accusing it of profiteering and sucking blood, many people have seen the hidden bad debt risk of cash loans. Once several bad debts break out at the same time, there will be a chain reaction, and the result will only be a pile of bubbles.

According to an industry insider, the general bad debt rate of this industry is above 20%, and the initial bad debt rate of a well-known platform is close to 50%.

In the current consumption environment where desire is expanding, many people with unequal earning power and spending power overdraw in advance through interconnected financial products such as flowers, white bars and cash loans, turning future money into current leverage.

If it lasts too long, it will only fold in the end. Lao Zhao is a good chestnut.

Financial leverage is being transferred to the people on a large scale.

Therefore, the problem of risk control is not just a problem of the platform. The problem that an industry needs to ponder has risen to the national level, and the regulatory thinking of the regulatory authorities is also undergoing tremendous changes. A subversive reform is already on the way!

2

The collapse of "belief in state-owned enterprises" and "belief in central enterprises"

In 20 16, there were at least 25 billion yuan of bonds in China's credit bond market, which was twice as much as in 20 15.

It is worth noting that nearly 70% of them come from central enterprises and state-owned enterprises.

From the industry point of view, the traditional industries with concentrated overcapacity such as steel, coal and nonferrous metals are the hardest hit areas. Regionally, the northeast and north China, where heavy industry is concentrated, have frequent explosions.

According to the analysis of insiders, since 20 14, the overcapacity in industries such as steel, mining and machinery manufacturing has been the most important feature of China's macro-economy. In the past, the high growth driven by investment gradually declined, and industries such as electromechanical and real estate all declined. The huge investment in the early stage failed to be converted into output in time, which led to the break of the capital chain.

Coal and steel are mainly concentrated in central enterprises and state-owned enterprises. In this context, it is normal for central enterprises and state-owned enterprises to have a "wave of default".

In the past, people generally regarded enterprises labeled with "Chinese prefix" as state-owned enterprises and central enterprises, and took it for granted that there were government credit endorsements behind them, but in fact, the qualifications and operating conditions of these enterprises were very different, and the credit risk would be higher.

In the eyes of market participants, central enterprises and local state-owned enterprises may still be the biggest "minefield" in the credit bond market for some time to come.

"We have relatively high ratings for some subsidiaries of central enterprises, which implies the credit of their parent companies. But in fact, sometimes it is necessary to distinguish. " Relevant people said. "In the past, banks expected state-owned assets to be arranged as a whole, and they would not dispose of the assets of borrowing enterprises at a low price after default, which is unlikely in the future." .

In the past, because China's economic growth was mainly driven by investment, the main investors were local governments and state-owned enterprises, so most of the debts were concentrated on local governments and state-owned enterprises; At the same time, due to the separation of ownership and management rights of investment projects, the political factors involved in maintaining growth are strong, which is easy to form debt quality problems.

Therefore, in the event of systemic risks such as economic slowdown, these debts can easily erupt collectively first, resulting in huge bad debts in commercial banks. Based on the quasi-sovereign nature of these debts, the central bank can only start printing money to pay bills, which will naturally lead to currency crisis and social crisis.

And in what way will the default debts of state-owned enterprises and state-owned enterprises be finally resolved? The Ministry of Finance threw down a cruel word: we must resolutely dispel the illusion that financial institutions think that the government will cover the bottom (bad debts, bad debts).

three

Bank financial risks are frequent!

In 20 17, the banking supervision system made great efforts to rectify market chaos, focusing on rectifying outstanding problems in the fields of credit, bills, interbank and wealth management, effectively curbing the high incidence of banking cases and achieving phased results in preventing and resolving risks.

But because of this, from 20 17, a wave of default began to kick off gradually!

The debt default of 20 17 is better than that of 20 16 in figures, and the number of products in default is half less than that of last year, but the terrible thing is that default is no longer limited to bonds, and our wealth management products are unstable.

China Merchants Bank:

The exposure of the default event of 654.38 billion wealth management products has aroused people's anxiety. Although China Merchants Bank has made clarification, it is still worrying.

Bank of Communications:

Bank of Communications has also been exposed to the problem of 300 million financial withdrawal.

Originally, it was due on 20 15, but now it is delayed for two years, and it is still unable to withdraw at the agreed rate of return. It is said that the annualized income of 8% can only get 4% now.

Ping An Bank:

Just recently, Ping An Bank broke out and fooled the elderly to buy wealth management products, causing the elderly to lose more than 200,000 in more than two months!

Don't think this is just an example. If it is only a case, why has the supervision been clinging to the bank?

In the first week of 20 18, the supervision issued four strong supervision documents for banks.

The first is about the management measures for large-scale risk exposure of banks.

First, the measures for the management of bank equity,

The first is the management method of entrusted loans by banks.

There is also a notice regulating the bond trading business.

These four documents seem to be unrelated to each other, but in fact they are linked one by one and continue to block the interbank business and channel business of banks.

Why do you want to block these businesses? To put it simply, it is these businesses that cause a lot of funds to be idle, and constantly increase leverage in the process of idleness.

Since last year, senior officials have been emphasizing the need for economic deleveraging. The core of economic deleveraging is financial deleveraging!

Under the strong background of financial deleveraging, deleveraging is irreversible, and bank wealth management products cannot be trusted completely, not to mention expecting bank wealth management to protect your principal and interest!

four

How should you manage your money?

State-owned enterprises, central enterprises and banks all have the risk of default, and this may be just the beginning.

In the face of more and more frequent defaults in the future, how should investors manage their finances? The following four suggestions should be kept in mind.

1. For any wealth management product, don't trust the promise of guaranteed capital and interest.

Be sure to carefully understand your risk tolerance, but also know where the risks of the product are, how to operate, and what the underlying assets are.

In the new year, risk control is more important than income. If there is no capital, what income can we talk about? If you want to do a good job in risk control, the most important thing is that you know what the financial products you invest in are, which is safer than any empty promises.

Don't invest heavily, learn to share the risk equally.

There are always risks in investment, and heavy positions are the wind direction of risks. No one can guarantee that a wealth management product will not go wrong. The best way is to "put more baskets" and share risks equally.

3. Control your debt level.

If it is really time for banks to limit or cut off loans, those who are most vulnerable are those who are heavily in debt.

4. Establish a correct sense of investment.

When investing in any product, we should carefully understand its risks and operation mode. Don't vote just because the background is good and you don't know what products others recommend. Everyone used to think that even if the investment was wrong, there would be banks or countries at the bottom.

In the new year, risk control is more important than income. If there is no capital, what income can we talk about? If you want to do a good job in risk control, the most important thing is to know what the wealth management products you invest in are. This requires you to study more and never think about "fool-like financial management" again!

Zhongdaihui

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