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Will interest rates rise or fall when the economy downturns?

Decline. The economic downturn indicates that the market is weak. At this time, it is necessary to encourage investment and stimulate consumption. Therefore, banks lower reserve interest rates and loan interest rates to expand loan scale to meet social investment needs. At the same time, they lower deposit interest rates to encourage people to spend money and invest in industries or consumption with high returns, while also reducing bank lending costs.

Economic downturn refers to the continuous decline of various indicators measuring economic growth, such as GDP, PPI, CPI, etc., that is, the economy changes from a growth trend to a downward trend. This economic downturn began in 2008, when the global economic and financial crisis occurred, which intensified concerns about the global economic downturn. Since then, "maintaining economic growth" has become the main tone for countries around the world.

The economic downturn that started along the coast and eventually spread to the mainland has attracted national attention. Against the backdrop of a significant slowdown in the global economy and many domestic challenges, whether China’s economy can continue to maintain steady and rapid development is a question. It is an important issue that has attracted widespread public attention at home and abroad.

In this regard, former Prime Minister Wen Jiabao gave a clear answer at the annual meeting of the Summer Davos Forum: There are many favorable conditions to ensure sustained and rapid growth of China's economy. We are fully confident and capable of overcoming various difficulties in progress and maintaining sound and rapid development of the national economy for a longer period of time.

How do you view the increasing downward pressure on the economy?

Mao Shengyong, spokesperson of the National Bureau of Statistics, analyzed that from an external perspective, there are some new changes in the world economic situation, which are reflected in:

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First, the growth momentum of the entire world economy is weakening;

Second, the growth of international trade has slowed down;

Third, commodity prices have fallen significantly;

Fourth, some leading indicators have dropped significantly. Judging from these circumstances, the current world economic situation has seen some new changes, and the variables, challenges and uncertainties have increased compared with the past.

Therefore, based on the external economic development situation, Mao Shengyong believes that my country’s current economy has the following two major characteristics:

First, the economic operation remains within a reasonable range and growth is relatively stable. Employment is generally stable and price increases have moderated.

Second, the situation of steady and progressive development continues. First of all, new driving forces have maintained relatively rapid growth, and market entities have continued to increase in large numbers;

Secondly, the structure has been optimized, the service industry has maintained steady and rapid growth, investment growth has stabilized and rebounded, and manufacturing investment has continued Recovery trend.

Mao Shengyong emphasized that we should also see that the current economic downward pressure is relatively large, especially now that the external environment is more severe and complex, and variables and uncertainties are increasing.

Therefore, the next step is to follow the decisions and arrangements of the Party Central Committee and the State Council, further intensify supply-side structural reform, and better implement various policies that have been introduced, especially to ensure the "six stability" Policies will be further and better implemented, and policy effects will be better exerted to promote the stable and healthy operation of the national economy.