Whether procyclicality can be achieved is unknown, but it is certain that with the soaring demand for new energy vehicles, it has become a fact that the upstream resources of the whole industry have entered a stage of short supply.

Text/"Autobots" Rolling

Tianqi Lithium Industry faces the risk of being unable to repay its $1.884 billion debt, but the company's share price has risen for three consecutive days, with a cumulative increase of over 3%, which has aroused concern.

affected by the storm of debt default, the share price of insolvent Tianqi Lithium Industry rose instead of falling, even higher than before the debt default problem was exposed. This is ridiculed by people as a stock market with China characteristics. But it's not that simple. At the same time, the market value of Ganfeng Lithium Industry, which is as famous as Tianqi Lithium Industry, has exceeded 11 billion yuan at the close of November 24, and the market value of Yiwei Lithium Energy has also exceeded 12 billion yuan.

In the commodity market, the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate, which accounts for more than 4% of the total cost of electrolyte, exceeded 1, yuan per ton on November 24th. Some institutions predict that it will reach 15 thousand yuan per ton in the first quarter of next year.

On the one hand, Tianqi Lithium has publicly stated that the company is at risk of not being able to repay the principal and interest; On the other hand, the company's main business can be said to have entered the golden stage of development. It is reasonable to say that such an oligopoly enterprise with lithium mine resources is in the "upper air" at present, and there will definitely be capital intervention to help.

As a result, we saw Tianqi's lithium industry explode. Many people hurriedly sold their stocks and fled at the first time. At the same time, some capital took the opportunity to eat food crazily, and gambled the company out of the crisis.

In fact, after China got out of the shadow of the COVID-19 epidemic, the new energy automobile industry has been driven by funds crazily.

last year, capital fired batteries, and this year, it fired whole vehicles. What's next? With the rapid price increase of upstream commodity resources due to the imbalance between supply and demand, keen capital will certainly not miss this "new field".

there is no doubt that the upstream resources are supported by fundamentals, and the largest market except China comes from Europe. The speed limit in Madrid and parts of Paris is 3km/h, and the speed limit in the Netherlands cannot exceed 1km/h, which shows two major anxieties of Europeans: energy anxiety and emission anxiety. From here, we can understand why Germany has proposed to achieve 1% electrification rate of automobiles by 23, and France, Britain and other countries have also proposed similar goals. The subsidies for new energy vehicles in these countries are far from comparable to those in China.

Many people don't believe the goals set by these European leaders, because the penetration rate of electric vehicles in Europe is only 3% in 22, which is one percentage point higher than that in 219, and it is still far from the goal. But at the same time, it also means that the market here has huge room for growth.

At present, among the four largest lithium resource suppliers in the world: SQM, Yabao, FMC and Tellison, Tianqi Lithium Industry alone monopolizes SQM and Tellison. As a global oligarch in this field, in such a big environment, of course, there is capital to dare to bargain-hunting, and bet on Tianqi lithium industry to get back on track.

the prices of raw materials in the upstream, including lithium ore, cobalt ore, lithium carbonate, lithium oxide and cathode materials, have increased significantly. Recently, the performance of cobalt and lithium is gratifying, and the colored plate of A shares has also become the most eye-catching industry plate.

With the market value of BYD A shares exceeding 5 billion RMB, Weilai's share price rose to 55 USD, and its market value reached 5 billion RMB. The speculation space of new energy vehicle stocks has been very limited, and it is natural for upstream resources to take over. Why did you finally speculate on upstream resources? First, the upstream listed companies are scattered; Second, the difficulty and cost of research are high; Third, the upstream industrial chain of new energy vehicles is not only complicated, but also the pattern has not stabilized, so it is not easy to find enterprises with development potential and bargaining power.

all this is no longer a problem with the rising prices of upstream raw material resources. For economists, it is unknown whether procyclicality can be achieved, but it is certain that with the skyrocketing demand for new energy vehicles, it has become a fact that the upstream resources of the whole industry have entered a stage of short supply. (Text/"Autobot" Rolling, part of the picture source network) Copyright statement This article is the exclusive original manuscript of Autobot, and the copyright belongs to Autobot.

This article comes from the author of Chejia, car home, and does not represent car home's standpoint.