The previously rumored price reduction plan was confirmed, and the dust of the 2/2/2/0 plan was settled. The Notice clearly states that "the on-grid tariff policy of sub-resource areas will continue to be implemented for onshore wind power". There is no adjustment of the resource area this time, and a more detailed plan will be left for later. "Reduce the on-grid tariff of wind power benchmarks in the first, second and third resource areas by 2 cents per kWh, and the adjusted on-grid tariff is 0.49 yuan, 0.52 yuan and 0.56 yuan per kWh respectively; The on-grid electricity price of wind power benchmark in Class IV resource area remains unchanged, which is 0.6 1 yuan per kWh. " So, how much impact does this price cut have on the income of enterprises? According to the previous calculation results of China Wind Energy Association, it is roughly as follows:

According to the annual report data of major new energy enterprises, the average operating hours are 1903 hours, and the average tax-included electricity price is 0.568 yuan/kwh. Take the onshore wind power project with a 20-year life cycle as an example, the capital is 20%, the bank loan is 80%, the loan term is 15, and the loan interest rate is 7.2% (the benchmark interest rate for long-term loans is 6.55%, and the bank loan interest rate for wind power projects is average. The real interest rate has exceeded 7.2%, which is more conservative if other small investors are considered). The calculated IRR of the project is 10.77%, and the average ROE in the first ten years is 7.43%, which is slightly higher than the bank loan interest rate. For the existing projects of major investors, if the price is reduced by 0.02 yuan/kWh, the internal rate of return on project capital will drop from 65,438+00.77% to 9.265,438+0%, and the average rate of return on net assets in the first ten years of the project will drop from 7.43% to 5.79%, down by 65,438+0.56 percentage points and 65,438 respectively. On the contrary, Class IV resource areas with good wind energy resources and large project stocks such as Shanxi and Anhui will usher in a rapid development situation. The "effect" of the national adjustment of industrial layout will be very obvious.

Second, about the target of price reduction.

All along, "the same price for the same network" and "the same price for wind and fire" are the development goals of wind power price. It is believed that this will improve the efficiency of the use of subsidy funds, thus promoting the competitiveness of the wind power market. But such a simple comparison is neither scientific nor fair. The electricity price of coal-fired power generation is not the embodiment of its total cost, and does not reflect the environmental externalities of coal-fired power generation. According to the calculation results of well-known national research institutions at home and abroad, if the hidden costs such as pollutant discharge, water pollution, workers' casualties and subversive changes in surface morphology brought by coal combustion are included and transferred to the electricity bill, the electricity price of coal-fired power generation will at least double or triple. These are actually social funds, people's health and development quality. If all these high external costs are allocated to the price of coal-fired electricity, the price of coal-fired electricity will lose its competitiveness immediately. If all are calculated at full cost, wind power is already very competitive in the market. All along, we only see subsidies for new energy sources such as wind power, but the scale of subsidies for wind power is far less than that for coal power. In 20 13, the wind power subsidy is about 20 billion, and in 20 15, it is about 30 billion. According to the total output of thermal power in 20 13 years, the public subsidy for desulfurization, denitrification and dust removal alone will reach 1 13 1 100 million yuan, excluding hidden subsidies such as casualty compensation. It is obvious which is higher or lower.

Thirdly, about time nodes.

The circular stipulates that the new electricity price policy is applicable to onshore wind power projects approved after 20 15 1 and those approved before 20 15 1 but before 20 16 1. That is to say, for the first three types of resource areas, projects that have been approved before the introduction of the policy should be built with confidence, but they must be connected to the grid before 1 next year, otherwise, sorry, they can only be implemented at the new electricity price. At present, Class IV resource areas account for nearly half of the approved projects, so the "rush to install" that everyone is worried about will come as scheduled, but it will not be "crazy". When the foreign electricity price policy changes, there will also be a phenomenon of rushing to install, which is normal as a market pressure. There is nothing to do. I can only expect everyone to be calm and restrained. Don't forget that quality is always the long-term way to survive. Don't be willful, don't be angry.

In addition, the document also emphasizes issues such as subsidy settlement and ensuring that policies are in place. However, there is still a big suspense, that is, the implementation period of this policy is not clear in the document, and naturally it is impossible to provide clear expectations for enterprise investment. As the most important supporting policy for the development of wind power industry, the continuity and stability of electricity price policy directly affect enterprise behavior and market fluctuation, and its significance to the industry is self-evident. Unexpected or frequent changes are the most worrying thing for investors. The industry can only hope that the future electricity price policy will be more stable and reasonable.